Updated 2nd Half Possibles

Add UCLA & So. Car. to the list along with previously mentioned WVU, USC, Va. Tech & Texas.

Final Picks of the Weekend

Pitt is giving 20 points, need I say more? Tyler Palko is no longer at Pitt... Wannestedt would make a better Seniors' Porn Circuit star than a football coach("but he's a nice guy")... EMU was 1-11 last year, was a very hard luck team that was inefficient and lost a bunch of close games. The core of the team is in tact, while Pitt is very unsettled @ QB and just does not have the firepower to give 20 points in this spot. Pitt 23 EMU(+20) 17 [1$] Based on betting action, it appears the sharps favor Okie St. @ Georgia. I am sure the case they make is Georgia is light on returners, Stafford was up and down @ QB for Georgia last year and OSU returns "The Big 3". Problems with what you read above are, in order: Georgia lost defensive starters, but return most of the offense. Mark Richt is a defensive genius, finishing in the top 20 in the country in defense the past 6 seasons. He will do fine with his selection of former stud recruits. Second, Stafford was thrown into the fire last year before he even knew the playbook and actually made out ok on talent alone. With a full year for the mental part of the game to catch up to the talent, I expect big things from Stafford. Finally, after extensive research, I found irrefutable evidence that Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin are all out of eligibility and actually prefer to be called "The Triplets". Hats off to the OSU marketing department for getting almost every major publication to call Reid, Savage & Bowman "The Big 3", but I'm not a buyer. Richt is playing chess while Gundy plays checkers in this one. UGA (-6) 31 OSU 20 [1$] My final selection does not come until Monday night in the Bowden Bowl. After 11 seasons under center for FSU, it is put up or shut up time for Drew Weatherford (expect to see some Xavier Lee as well). Clemson comes at you with the US Olympic relay team but asks an inexperienced QB to get them the ball against an almost equally fast defense. Clemson was solid on D last season and returns most of its starters, but gets gutted losing Gaines Adams, the guy you had to game plan for making everyone else's job easier. FSU turned it's coaching staff into a Southerners MENSA meeting(they only understand football and BBQ, but are very good at both) and Jenn Sterger is still smoking hot. Expect Daddy Bowden to put son Tommy over his knee in this one as FSU announces it's return to national title contention with authority(a la Nuke LaLoosh). FSU(-3) 34 Clem 13 [2$]

Friday's Lone Pick

You look at the Washington @ Syracuse game and it doesn't offer you much to sink your teeth into from a handicapping standpoint. Inexperience versus inexperience, new QBs on each side, once proud programs both looking to jump start things, but neither has much to work with. A 3-3.5 point road favorite that can list only the home team and a couple of other major program teams that it deserves to give points to on the road(or does it, hard to tell). What is coming through loud and clear is neither team can point to where its points are going to come from, unless if they each point at the young QB on THE OTHER TEAM! Yes, one of these QBs may throw a couple of TDs to the other team in this game, but each coach, if in his right mind, has the primary objective in his game plan to NOT do that. You'll watch because nothing else is on and you recognize the uniforms(sort of), but you will not be treated to good football. Wash 17 'Cuse 13 (UN 45)[1$]

Thursday Re-cap

The LSU game went to script, I mean as if I wrote the script(45-0 final, predicted 45-3; QB for Miss St. who "doesn't value the ball" threw 6 INTs. Hard to extract much from this game other than to be careful of LSUs lack of homerun hitters on offense. No team is winning a national title in CFB if they can't score from anywhere on the field... Kent St./Iowa St. stayed under as expected, Utah/Oreg. St. failed to go over as Utah lost star QB Brian Johnson in the 2nd qtr. to an apparent separated shoulder. Even with Johnson , this one wasn't going over... Count opens (2-1)(+0.80$), nice to get things rolling on a positive, however small.

Duke!?! Yes, DUKE!

Saturday's game between Duke & UConn will likely decide who gets the number one seed in the East bracket as two legends, Coach K and Coach Calhoun square off... this isn't a basketball game? But both of their football teams s*ck! Yes, these are two pretty bad football teams, and normally I just stay away, but there is a very compelling story in here. If you look at last season, UConn was 4-9, Duke was 0-12(riding a 20 game losing streak), I mean really look at every game, other than an early loss to the Richmond Spider Monkeys(1-AA), these are almost equally bad teams. Duke had a tougher schedule, simply in that, top to bottom the ACC is a tougher conference and no one wants to let their free win against Duke get away. Duke managed to have 3 near misses, 2 against pretty worthy opponents(Wake Forest, Miami-FL, albeit with a ton of suspensions), and after 3 early shutouts early, managed to start putting some points on the board with a true freshman making 11 starts at QB. Well Duke returns all 11 starters from that offense that started to show life, while UConn ships its starting QB to WR to make room for a hefty lefty from JUCO. Sure he put up big numbers in JUCO, but that really isn't proof of much(see Schaeffer, Brent, Ole Miss last season). No, UConn will run the ball, and that will keep Duke from being blown out, even though they cannot stop the run. If you look up and down Duke's schedule this year, especially at the home games, this game jumps out as the best opportunity for this team to break that miserable losing streak, and you can bet "everyone is 0-0 right now" is the battle cry for the Dukies. An offense with that type of continuity is rare and not to be discounted, even in the depths of a conference. Even more compelling is the line movement on this one as it opened at UConn -6 and now sits at UConn -4.5 in spite of the fact that Vegas is taking 2 to 1 wager volume in favor of UConn. That tells you 1 of 2 things, Vegas is taking a side with Duke here(not likely), or in the lighter wager volume, there is a lot of sharp money in favor of Duke and Vegas is trying to balance their cash exposure(a great sign for Duke wagerers). I say it ends here on a 3 from the corner(or a FG in this case), I'm going to shop for +5, but will take +4.5, Duke 89 UConn 87... I mean Duke(+4.5) 29 UConn 27.

Early Saturday Pick

Nebraska is still one of the toughest places to play in the country, now add in that Nevada has a new QB(one that has the coaching staff so inspired by that they are going to mix in a Frosh to see if he can play) and a 3rd string center in a shotgun offense(think there may be some communication problems when Herbie Husker starts bouncing on his head driving the natives into a frenzy) and you have a recipe for a rout. Bill Callahan is one of the most unlikeable people in all of football by most accounts, but you have to believe even he knows enough to pay back Sam Keller for legitimizing his passing offense initiative by showcasing Keller's talents. I have grown to like mid-major conference teams when they step up to tougher comp, but only when that team is near the top of its conference. Nevada is an also-ran this season in the WAC, but the name still carries enough cache to keep this spread down to 3 TDs. I don't think this line will move up, but I got the number I wanted and I hit it. Nebraska(-21) 38 Nevada 9 [1$-may upsize]

2nd Half Picks

I am a big believer in the 2nd half bet in college football. Over-matched teams often survive the 1st half on emotion alone, only to get plastered in the 2nd half when talent takes over, and coaches stick with their starters a little longer to make the score look good for the pollsters. It is difficult to log these picks if I am doing something other than sitting in front of my computer(I will only count the occurrences I can log before the 2nd half starts in my record). However, to be helpful to all of my devoted readers(currently 0), I will try to isolate the teams that, if they find themselves in a competitive game, I will be likely to jump on in the 2nd half. The teams for this week are: Rutgers, LSU, WVU, USC, Va. Tech & Texas.

More Thurday Picks

Let's go back again to 2 seasons ago, when a young QB was attempting to replace a legend at his school, a legend that led his team to an undefeated season and went #1 in the subsequent NFL draft. The legend was Alex Smith @ Utah, the young QB was Brian Johnson. After mixing some very good performances with some mediocre performances, Johnson went from an athlete playing quarterback, to an athletic quarterback. Johnson turned in 3 consecutive 100+ QB rating performances with 3+ TDs each game, putting up an average of 37 points per game before his season ended with a knee injury. Twenty months later, Johnson will finally be back on the field, hoping to pick up where he left off against Oregon State, a Pac-10 team trying to build a program. The Beavers counter with a platoon of lefty Sean Canfield ,who saw some action early in 2006, but lost his reps when Matt Moore emerged as the team leader and Lyle Moevao. Canfield was a highly-touted HS QB and has the ability to put points on the board, Moevao is seeing his first action. This one, however, will not be dictated by the men under center, instead will be dominated by the respective experienced, oversized OLs, each facing inexperienced, undersized DLs. This one has the makings of a shootout that could go either way, but should go over rather easily. Oreg. St. 38 Utah 35 (OVER 53) [2$] Also Thursday night, mobile QB Bret Meyer of Iowa St. will need his feet behind an untested OL & few returners on offense versus a mature Kent State team with an even shiftier QB Julian Edelman. While both QBs run well, neither is a polished passer and I expect the defenses to be a little ahead of the offenses early in the season. These games against major conference foes tend to mean a little more to MAC teams, but Kent State may fall victim of its need to finish drives in the end zone due to an awful kicking game. Either way, an under is in the cards here. Iowa St. 20 Kent St. 14 (UNDER 46) [1$]

Early Week CFB Pick

On occasion, when I see a line I feel will move against me, I will put up an early post. Thursday night, LSU visits Miss St., and as often happens with heavy favorites, I expect to see the line move up from the 17.5 line one book I use has(I am already seeing 18.5 in some places). Two seasons ago, Matt Flynn battled JaMarcus Russell preseason for the starting job and by many accounts outplayed Russell, but lost out to the more physically gifted player. Flynn had his opportunity in the Peach Bowl that year and totally shredded Miami-FL in a 40-3 win. Flynn finally gets his shot to be the man on a very experienced team that just re-loads when it loses starters anyway. Ironically, Flynn is probably the reason why the line is less than 3 TDs. LSU will be competing for a national title this season, has a ton of trends in its favor, a flair for the spotlight(ESPN game to show off) and a coach who seems to enjoy lighting up the scoreboard, regardless of the opponent. Miss St. does not protect its home field at all and has a QB who does not value the football. Expect a rout, 2 Star Selection, get it in early as this line could push 3 TDs by kickoff. LSU(-17.5) 45-3. More Thursday picks coming later in the week.

Why Dog Fighting/Torturing is Wrong...

An unwritten rule of this world is not to torture or kill anything you don't plan to eat. I call this "The Food Chain Theory" . As humans, we are allowed to kill animals because we are on top of the food chain, but if we don't eat them after we kill them, it is just plain cruel. Mike Vick needs to go to jail to contemplate his actions. In the meantime, we have a new worst team in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons. Please take advantage of this information when lines are a touchdown(or more) off early in the season, because the odds makers will only adjust lines when public perception catches up with the fact that this team is easy to stop and the coach is over-matched like every other recent college coach in the NFL. Who was the last coach to make the leap successfully, Jimmy Johnson?

Intro

Welcome to my blog, primarily used as a means for documenting my sports wagering selections(before the events happen) to begin to build a performance track record. If I perform poorly, so what, I'll just change the name and disappear. However, if I am successful, and even better, if I build a following, hopefully I will realize my dream of becoming a professional sports handicapper. Aside from posting my selections (College & Pro Football for starters), I intend to put up some commentary on current events in the sports world, and direct you to some things I think will be useful for readers trying to learn about more about sports handicapping.