CFB Pick

If not for awful officials' calls, UConn would have lost to a bad Louisville team and TEMPLE!!!! If not for missed FGs and red zone turnovers, So. Fl. would have won by 14 last week. The luck has to end somewhere... RU(+2)34 UConn 17 [3$].

Early Picks

Saw a few lines I like right now... CFB... ORE(-7) over ASU [5$]...NFL... NE(-4.5) over IND[5$]... TEN(-4) over CAR [4$]... JAX(+3.5) over NO [4$]...more to come later in the week.

Monday Night 2nd Half

Good value chase since it saves you the DEN -7 2nd half for the 1-point win. DEN(-3,@H,+110) over GB [3$].

Monday Night

So I traveled to a lame city, fought with my wife, did all of the work on my picks earlier in the week, and ended the weekend with a net +0.10$(2.10$ for the week if you include Thursday night). What a waste! ... Monday night matches an AFC team versus an NFC team. That type of match-up ended up 3-0 straight-up and ATS this week and has been the only nugget of wisdom to use this season in a difficult year(that I am starting to get the better of mind you). A -3 point spread from the home team suggests an even neutral field match-up, however a solid AFC team is probably 6-7 points better than a solid NFC team on a neutral field. This is that type of match-up and this line obliges us to go with the AFC team at a discount... DEN(-3)24 GB 14 [4$].

Upsize

USF(-4.5) over UConn [2$] added onto [3$] @ -5.

Road Warrior(s)

What a Saturday of CFB coming up as there are several matchups between ranked teams or with ranked teams versus teams that can knock them off... again. What we are going through in CFB is a statistical anomaly with top 10 teams getting knocked off by inferior teams. It is to the point where oddsmakers are now setting spreads to account for this, and that is where value comes out. This set of lines specifically addresses what is going on in CFB and like all statistical anomalies, things will normalize. In the meantime, I am going to take the bait and take the "better" teams either getting points or giving fewer than they deserve to... on the NFL front, I am doing the same, except I am going with one of the strongest trends in NFL wagering, going against the mighty Pats minus an obscene 16 points to a good Skins team(fair value on this line is a TD or more lower). So while you are on your couch, enjoying a great slate of football, I will be on the road in Nashville, watching my wife's alma mater Red(skins) Hawks against Vandy. Don't feel too bad for me though, I will be drinking like a college kid, looking @ Southern college girls... in my own road warrior mode, that is the theme of these picks... VT has beaten no one unless you think one-dimensional CLEM is good and might be the worst top 10 team ever. Add in a QB issue and BCs #1 rushing D... BC(+3) 23 VT 14 [3$]... UConn IS the worst ranked team ever and So. Fl. sees the big picture that it is still in position to get to a BCS bowl...So. Fl.(-5) 37 UConn 14 [3$]... USC and its elite D is getting points in the Pac-10...USC(+3) 30 Ore 19 [2$]... UGA is strong on the road, especially with an obscene 9 points...UGA(+9) 27 UF 24 [2$]... How much fun do you think it was to be in Columbia this week? UT is not very good, Bama was not a complete fluke... So. Car.(+3) 24 UT 17 [2$]... RU can't stop the run, WVU can run... WVU(-6.5) 38 RU 24 [2$]... I have no choice on this one, I won't be able to enjoy the game without a real rooting interest... M-OH(+14) 20 Vandy 14 [2$]...NFL... The Pats run HAS to come to an end at some point... NE33 WAS(+16) 24 [2$]... The NFC is bad, and CAR is bad amongst the bad... IND(-6.5) 30 CAR 10 [2$]... Don't let a win versus the Jets fool you, CIN is really bad too & PIT is angry... PIT(-3.5) 34 CIN 17 [2$]... I probably won't have access to a computer until Sunday afternoon, but keep an eye out for 2nd half plays, good teams, perhaps they turned the ball over in the 1st, you know what to look for.

I Want My Money Back!

Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese called the missed call I complained about in the L'ville/UConn game "terrible" and he has punished the referee who missed the call in some fashion. I will be going to my mailbox starting Wednesday to see if I got my check from the Big East to ease my pain. The joke of it is, I think the So. Fl./RU call is the one that needs fixing... I guess when the darling of the Big East, RU is involved, and the game got great ratings and gave the conference great exposure, it's OK for the refs to f-up the game. As long as we know the rules going forward...

Monday Night

My apologies again on not posting a pick but I once again was unable to get to a computer for my 2nd half DAL pick yesterday. Once again, it was a pretty obvious style pick. Unfortunately I am doing a bad job of making my blog an entirely accurate representation of my picks and it is making me look bad... Tonight we have the highly touted Colts and the suddenly highly touted Jags. I was listening to the radio yesterday and some idiot actually called them the 3rd best team in the league. Nonetheless, if talking about style, this is one of those I can't explain other than they play physical, but the Jags always give the Colts fits. I expect the same tonight, but I am not prepared to make a side selection in the game. My preference is for the under in this game, however, my selection is to middle the entire game, taking 12 points on each line to fit this competitive game into... remember, we really only have to be right twice since we're doing it on the same game... IND +9/JAX +15/O 33/ U 57 [2$].