10/25/2007
Road Warrior(s)
What a Saturday of CFB coming up as there are several matchups between ranked teams or with ranked teams versus teams that can knock them off... again. What we are going through in CFB is a statistical anomaly with top 10 teams getting knocked off by inferior teams. It is to the point where oddsmakers are now setting spreads to account for this, and that is where value comes out. This set of lines specifically addresses what is going on in CFB and like all statistical anomalies, things will normalize. In the meantime, I am going to take the bait and take the "better" teams either getting points or giving fewer than they deserve to... on the NFL front, I am doing the same, except I am going with one of the strongest trends in NFL wagering, going against the mighty Pats minus an obscene 16 points to a good Skins team(fair value on this line is a TD or more lower). So while you are on your couch, enjoying a great slate of football, I will be on the road in Nashville, watching my wife's alma mater Red(skins) Hawks against Vandy. Don't feel too bad for me though, I will be drinking like a college kid, looking @ Southern college girls... in my own road warrior mode, that is the theme of these picks... VT has beaten no one unless you think one-dimensional CLEM is good and might be the worst top 10 team ever. Add in a QB issue and BCs #1 rushing D... BC(+3) 23 VT 14 [3$]... UConn IS the worst ranked team ever and So. Fl. sees the big picture that it is still in position to get to a BCS bowl...So. Fl.(-5) 37 UConn 14 [3$]... USC and its elite D is getting points in the Pac-10...USC(+3) 30 Ore 19 [2$]... UGA is strong on the road, especially with an obscene 9 points...UGA(+9) 27 UF 24 [2$]... How much fun do you think it was to be in Columbia this week? UT is not very good, Bama was not a complete fluke... So. Car.(+3) 24 UT 17 [2$]... RU can't stop the run, WVU can run... WVU(-6.5) 38 RU 24 [2$]... I have no choice on this one, I won't be able to enjoy the game without a real rooting interest... M-OH(+14) 20 Vandy 14 [2$]...NFL... The Pats run HAS to come to an end at some point... NE33 WAS(+16) 24 [2$]... The NFC is bad, and CAR is bad amongst the bad... IND(-6.5) 30 CAR 10 [2$]... Don't let a win versus the Jets fool you, CIN is really bad too & PIT is angry... PIT(-3.5) 34 CIN 17 [2$]... I probably won't have access to a computer until Sunday afternoon, but keep an eye out for 2nd half plays, good teams, perhaps they turned the ball over in the 1st, you know what to look for.
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