My Weekend... and NFL picks

I went to a wedding Friday night, got a few drinks in me and started betting obscene amounts on every game on the slate, digging a hole that was larger than what I am down for the season. Yesterday, while only putting in a few picks, I got my shovel and got to a 4-digit positive for the week by being on fire. I guess I'm not good at sharing, my apologies for not taking you along for the ride, I was 7-1-1, the push coming in the 1st half of GEO/GT when the GEO kicker missed an XP to cost me the win. That's right, I gave out 2 losers, but only had one on my own, I backed off of KAN, but did capitalize on what wound up being an easy 2nd half over. As a result of a Saturday that felt like a double-shift as a gravedigger, I am taking it easy today, putting in the prevent defense to preserve my good work, and taking a big swing myself... TEN ML/NO ML/JAX ML [3.5$/9.98$]... and one from the heart... PHI +24/Nova -0.5(bought 2.5 points) [3$/6.22$]... just in case I'm really on fire, I'm going to mention that while NYG has good numbers against the run, the only effective running game faced this year is DAL. I keep hearing how this game is a walkover for NYG, but don't be shocked if MIN runs all over NYG today and keeps it close, if not sneaks by for the win. No pick in there though, like I said, I'm in prevent today.

2nd Half

MIA-FL appears to have given up. Ryan will try to boost his lost Heisman hopes... BC -6.5,2H over MIA [5$].

Saturday CFB

VT -4 over UVA [4$]... KAN PK over MIZZ [3$]... So. Car. +3 over CLEM [4$]... more to follow.

Friday Picks

I have always found this to be one of the toughest days of the year to pick CFB games. The games are usually rivalries, and with Thanksgiving cutting in, you just don't know what kind of prep teams were able to put in for the game. Of course, by my record, you can see I have found many days difficult to pick this season, so I'm going to give it a shot anyway... LSU, like an aging boxer, has lost its knockout punch. Earlier in the season, LSU just dismembered opponents, but as the season has progressed, perhaps aware of the ultimate goal, has become a boxer that chooses to not put himself in danger, and try to out-point his opponents. I don't love having to run to attack LSU, it just has not worked much, but ARK runs like no one else, so they should have some success... LSU 28 ARK(+13) 20 [4$]... TAM has given up. I don't even think they like Franchione enough to try one more time for him. TEX has a 10 win season, a major bowl and a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game if OK stumbles... TEX(-6)49 TAM 14 [5$]... I am withholding judgement on a big game tonight between BSU & HAW. All angles suggest a BSU win to spoil the undefeated HAW season, but a long trip to the islands on a short week over Thanksgiving is a lot to overcome, and BSU could not have possibly done enough prep on a tricky offense to feel good about stopping HAW. I am going to continue to look at this one, but for now it is a pass... CBB... L'ville is truly one of the elite CBB teams right now and appears to be lacking a little respect in Vegas. After drumming UNLV and this Vegas tourney, that should change... L'ville(-6) over BYU [3$].

Turkey Day Picks

Big wiseguy selection that makes sense. DET just lost at home last week, season is on the line today... DET(+3.5)24 GB 21 [4$]... My favorite HOPEFUL pick is DAL 2nd half as they have been amazing in 2nd halves so far, but I can't put that up until I get a line and won't have computer access, so you will have to do it on your own. DAL will score points for sure, the OV is well in reach... DAL45 NYJ17 O47.5 [2$]... IND is the best bet of the week at any line that has ever been put on an NFL game... IND(-12) 41 ATL 0 [5$]... CFB... USC heads into ASU to complete the fall to earth for ASU. Would have happened last week if UCLA wasn't on its 6th string QB. His name is Oscar Rasshan and an insider told me he will also be the villain in this upcoming season of 24... USC(-3) 33 ASU 23 [3$].

Worst week ever!

Between Saturday and Sunday, I went 2-12 on posted picks. I felt like John Anthony in Two for the Money when he got cold. Fortunately, no one is taking my advice, therefore, I don't have to worry about anyone taking a piss in my face. It got to the point where, even when I had computer access, I didn't post additional picks that I was making. So what happened?... Of course I went on a tear and had a profit for the week in the low 4-figure range in my "personal account". Un-posted picks included some college hoops(more on that later), an obvious Eagles 2nd half pick(after 3 first half INTs and arguably a QB upgrade when McNabb went down) and a Pats over parlay(I don't recommend parlays, but I was feeling it on this "no post and win" wave I was on). A couple of years ago, I swore off of being superstitious when I accidentally broke a mirror, then decided to break 2 more to I made it so overwhelming, I would have to kill myself or give up on being superstitious... I chose the latter. I am here to report no noticeable changes in luck after the mirrors, but a liberating feeling you can only get from things like a divorce and the witness protection program. Point of telling the story, I know not posting had no impact on my success, but I was motivated to inaction, in this case not posting because it was easier that way. I make a great argument against organized religion in this vein if you ever want to hear it... Onto tonight's game, TEN @ DEN... TEN is confident and finding ways to win, DEN is a little unsure and losing many more than it wins after starting the season as a team that was finding ways to win. Talent is close to even, but TEN has an outstanding defense while DEN has a lot of exploitable holes. Jeff Fisher and Norm Chow possess the unique ability in coaching circles of checking their egos and just doing what will put them in the best position to win. In this case, that's run the ball, then run it some more, which is what TEN likes to do anyway. Furthermore, DEN has proven susceptible to the QB run versus the more mobile QBs faced(Garrard, Big Ben and Losman all were effective with scrambles). VY is much more capable than the names on that list and it is in the gameplan to run him. Add in VY fits the profile of a Monday Night spotlight star, and I think we have a decision... TEN(EV)23 DEN 14 [4$](keep your +1, I'll take even money on the loss here... Now for that "back to CBB", I obviously love college hoops as a Nova guy, and think I actually do better historically betting CBB, but I am not ready to commit to posting frequently this season, but I will put up some picks when motivated starting tonight... I, like most hetero males that did not attend Duke, HATE DUKE! Tonight they face a bad Princeton team that is +22, believe it or not, due to name recognition. Duke loves rolling it up on teams and will do so tonight... DUKE(-22) over Princeton [3$].

2nd Half

Normally I love a good team trailing at the half, however with the starting QB out, the backup looking clueless and the defense unable to get off the field, I can't. Then I see a line that is normally 7-10 points coming in at -3,-120 and I know my eyes did not deceive me. TTU will finish off OU in convincing fashion... TTU (+3,EV,2H) over OU [4$]. Just added another [2$] @ +3.5,EV,2H.

Weekend Selections

Tough one last night on ORE, if you watched the game, ORE was dominant on offense with Dixon in, with Leaf, not so much... CFB... Once over-achieving teams get the 1st chink in their armour, they typically begin to reel(see So. Fl., BC, UK to name a few). I would say this especially applies to a team that has been outgained in it's last 5 games(winning the 1st 4) by an average of over 100 yards. UCONN 27 CUSE(+19) 20 [2$]... WVU OWNS CIN and is smelling an opportunity to win a championship. Too much offense and defense from WVU... WVU(-6.5)38 CIN 17 [3$]... A trap game if there ever was one, ISU can score enough to bring a huge spread into play... KU 41 ISU(+26.5) 24 [2$]... An elite team that had it and lost is much more dangerous and thorough than one that never had it... LSU(-19.5)40 Miss 0 [3$]... Mich saw the big picture last week and rested some stars and took a loss in the process, knowing this week was the big one. OSU applies to the overachiever statement above... MICH(+4) 34 OSU 28 [2$]... What would this line be if BC were still undefeated? BC has seen its mortality, but also plays solid against the run which comprises the CLEM O... BC(+8)24 CLEM 23 [3$]... NFL... SD looked really bad in a win Sunday night, but JAX has been shaky and turns to a rusty Garrard at QB... SD(+3)27 JAX 21 [2$]... PIT has stepped it up to put themselves amongst the elite in the NFL while NYJ has many holes...PIT(-9.5)34 NYJ 13 [2$]... Only one opportunity this week to get an AFC team at home against a bad NFC team. AZ will call it a victory if they find the stadium... CIN(-3)34 AZ 13 [2$]... Sucking in the 2nd half of the season is a difficult trend to prove, but NYG have done their best the past few seasons. More importantly, DET is a different team at home(4-0, 3-0-1 ATS) and should not get points from a team in the same class... DET(+2.5)24 NYG 20 [3$]... I'm sorry, I'm back to this. Feel free to ignore this pick, but Jim Johnson versus a rookie QB is a mismatch and I dread to say, PHI still has some life left... PHI(-10)51 MIA 3 [3$]... Teams heading in different directions, STL has its stars back in the line-up, SF has Dilfer back under center. Try to convince me SF is not the worst team in the NFL right now... STL(-3)30 SF 10 [2$]... As always, upsizes and 2nd half plays are possible and likely.