NFC "Game of the Year"

It pains me to have to say that, but it is obviously true. Throw out the Favre 0-8 record at Texas Stadium, different teams, it's just not relevant. DAL is the better team in this match-up because of a balanced offense, add in home field advantage, and I think we have our winner. Problem is the spread seams very accurate. I managed to get some in early in the week at 6.5, but since that line is not offered now, I am going to suggest you pay for it if you must wager on this game(like I MUST wager on this game)... DAL(-6.5,-120)34 GB 27 [3$].

Monday Night 2nd Half

This weather is ridiculous, but I can't see losing PIT -7, 2H... PIT(-7,2H,EV) over MIA [10$].

Monday Night Reminder

Are you f-ing kidding me on the phantom foul call against Nova with 0.4 secs. left? What is it with Nova getting the shaft against teams from NC(UNC in 2006 tourney, phantom walk call on Allan Ray)? Of course the MIN pick hits when I don't play it. At least NYG got pinned with a loss making the 2nd half NFC WC race interesting, even though whomever gets in sucks anyway... Just a reminder on the PIT pick for tonight... Coming off a loss, home on Monday night, against a rookie QB, after seeing NE struggle last night with a big point spread, and, oh yeah, RICKY WILLIAMS who has not played in the NFL in over 2 years, coming off a week of practice is the starting RB! Do you think MIA wants to lock up the #1 pick in the draft?... PIT(-16) 38 MIA 3 [5$](would put it in for 50$ just to wipe out my deficit, but that is kind of against the rules.

My Weekend... and NFL picks

I went to a wedding Friday night, got a few drinks in me and started betting obscene amounts on every game on the slate, digging a hole that was larger than what I am down for the season. Yesterday, while only putting in a few picks, I got my shovel and got to a 4-digit positive for the week by being on fire. I guess I'm not good at sharing, my apologies for not taking you along for the ride, I was 7-1-1, the push coming in the 1st half of GEO/GT when the GEO kicker missed an XP to cost me the win. That's right, I gave out 2 losers, but only had one on my own, I backed off of KAN, but did capitalize on what wound up being an easy 2nd half over. As a result of a Saturday that felt like a double-shift as a gravedigger, I am taking it easy today, putting in the prevent defense to preserve my good work, and taking a big swing myself... TEN ML/NO ML/JAX ML [3.5$/9.98$]... and one from the heart... PHI +24/Nova -0.5(bought 2.5 points) [3$/6.22$]... just in case I'm really on fire, I'm going to mention that while NYG has good numbers against the run, the only effective running game faced this year is DAL. I keep hearing how this game is a walkover for NYG, but don't be shocked if MIN runs all over NYG today and keeps it close, if not sneaks by for the win. No pick in there though, like I said, I'm in prevent today.

2nd Half

MIA-FL appears to have given up. Ryan will try to boost his lost Heisman hopes... BC -6.5,2H over MIA [5$].

Saturday CFB

VT -4 over UVA [4$]... KAN PK over MIZZ [3$]... So. Car. +3 over CLEM [4$]... more to follow.

Friday Picks

I have always found this to be one of the toughest days of the year to pick CFB games. The games are usually rivalries, and with Thanksgiving cutting in, you just don't know what kind of prep teams were able to put in for the game. Of course, by my record, you can see I have found many days difficult to pick this season, so I'm going to give it a shot anyway... LSU, like an aging boxer, has lost its knockout punch. Earlier in the season, LSU just dismembered opponents, but as the season has progressed, perhaps aware of the ultimate goal, has become a boxer that chooses to not put himself in danger, and try to out-point his opponents. I don't love having to run to attack LSU, it just has not worked much, but ARK runs like no one else, so they should have some success... LSU 28 ARK(+13) 20 [4$]... TAM has given up. I don't even think they like Franchione enough to try one more time for him. TEX has a 10 win season, a major bowl and a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game if OK stumbles... TEX(-6)49 TAM 14 [5$]... I am withholding judgement on a big game tonight between BSU & HAW. All angles suggest a BSU win to spoil the undefeated HAW season, but a long trip to the islands on a short week over Thanksgiving is a lot to overcome, and BSU could not have possibly done enough prep on a tricky offense to feel good about stopping HAW. I am going to continue to look at this one, but for now it is a pass... CBB... L'ville is truly one of the elite CBB teams right now and appears to be lacking a little respect in Vegas. After drumming UNLV and this Vegas tourney, that should change... L'ville(-6) over BYU [3$].

Turkey Day Picks

Big wiseguy selection that makes sense. DET just lost at home last week, season is on the line today... DET(+3.5)24 GB 21 [4$]... My favorite HOPEFUL pick is DAL 2nd half as they have been amazing in 2nd halves so far, but I can't put that up until I get a line and won't have computer access, so you will have to do it on your own. DAL will score points for sure, the OV is well in reach... DAL45 NYJ17 O47.5 [2$]... IND is the best bet of the week at any line that has ever been put on an NFL game... IND(-12) 41 ATL 0 [5$]... CFB... USC heads into ASU to complete the fall to earth for ASU. Would have happened last week if UCLA wasn't on its 6th string QB. His name is Oscar Rasshan and an insider told me he will also be the villain in this upcoming season of 24... USC(-3) 33 ASU 23 [3$].

Worst week ever!

Between Saturday and Sunday, I went 2-12 on posted picks. I felt like John Anthony in Two for the Money when he got cold. Fortunately, no one is taking my advice, therefore, I don't have to worry about anyone taking a piss in my face. It got to the point where, even when I had computer access, I didn't post additional picks that I was making. So what happened?... Of course I went on a tear and had a profit for the week in the low 4-figure range in my "personal account". Un-posted picks included some college hoops(more on that later), an obvious Eagles 2nd half pick(after 3 first half INTs and arguably a QB upgrade when McNabb went down) and a Pats over parlay(I don't recommend parlays, but I was feeling it on this "no post and win" wave I was on). A couple of years ago, I swore off of being superstitious when I accidentally broke a mirror, then decided to break 2 more to I made it so overwhelming, I would have to kill myself or give up on being superstitious... I chose the latter. I am here to report no noticeable changes in luck after the mirrors, but a liberating feeling you can only get from things like a divorce and the witness protection program. Point of telling the story, I know not posting had no impact on my success, but I was motivated to inaction, in this case not posting because it was easier that way. I make a great argument against organized religion in this vein if you ever want to hear it... Onto tonight's game, TEN @ DEN... TEN is confident and finding ways to win, DEN is a little unsure and losing many more than it wins after starting the season as a team that was finding ways to win. Talent is close to even, but TEN has an outstanding defense while DEN has a lot of exploitable holes. Jeff Fisher and Norm Chow possess the unique ability in coaching circles of checking their egos and just doing what will put them in the best position to win. In this case, that's run the ball, then run it some more, which is what TEN likes to do anyway. Furthermore, DEN has proven susceptible to the QB run versus the more mobile QBs faced(Garrard, Big Ben and Losman all were effective with scrambles). VY is much more capable than the names on that list and it is in the gameplan to run him. Add in VY fits the profile of a Monday Night spotlight star, and I think we have a decision... TEN(EV)23 DEN 14 [4$](keep your +1, I'll take even money on the loss here... Now for that "back to CBB", I obviously love college hoops as a Nova guy, and think I actually do better historically betting CBB, but I am not ready to commit to posting frequently this season, but I will put up some picks when motivated starting tonight... I, like most hetero males that did not attend Duke, HATE DUKE! Tonight they face a bad Princeton team that is +22, believe it or not, due to name recognition. Duke loves rolling it up on teams and will do so tonight... DUKE(-22) over Princeton [3$].

2nd Half

Normally I love a good team trailing at the half, however with the starting QB out, the backup looking clueless and the defense unable to get off the field, I can't. Then I see a line that is normally 7-10 points coming in at -3,-120 and I know my eyes did not deceive me. TTU will finish off OU in convincing fashion... TTU (+3,EV,2H) over OU [4$]. Just added another [2$] @ +3.5,EV,2H.

Weekend Selections

Tough one last night on ORE, if you watched the game, ORE was dominant on offense with Dixon in, with Leaf, not so much... CFB... Once over-achieving teams get the 1st chink in their armour, they typically begin to reel(see So. Fl., BC, UK to name a few). I would say this especially applies to a team that has been outgained in it's last 5 games(winning the 1st 4) by an average of over 100 yards. UCONN 27 CUSE(+19) 20 [2$]... WVU OWNS CIN and is smelling an opportunity to win a championship. Too much offense and defense from WVU... WVU(-6.5)38 CIN 17 [3$]... A trap game if there ever was one, ISU can score enough to bring a huge spread into play... KU 41 ISU(+26.5) 24 [2$]... An elite team that had it and lost is much more dangerous and thorough than one that never had it... LSU(-19.5)40 Miss 0 [3$]... Mich saw the big picture last week and rested some stars and took a loss in the process, knowing this week was the big one. OSU applies to the overachiever statement above... MICH(+4) 34 OSU 28 [2$]... What would this line be if BC were still undefeated? BC has seen its mortality, but also plays solid against the run which comprises the CLEM O... BC(+8)24 CLEM 23 [3$]... NFL... SD looked really bad in a win Sunday night, but JAX has been shaky and turns to a rusty Garrard at QB... SD(+3)27 JAX 21 [2$]... PIT has stepped it up to put themselves amongst the elite in the NFL while NYJ has many holes...PIT(-9.5)34 NYJ 13 [2$]... Only one opportunity this week to get an AFC team at home against a bad NFC team. AZ will call it a victory if they find the stadium... CIN(-3)34 AZ 13 [2$]... Sucking in the 2nd half of the season is a difficult trend to prove, but NYG have done their best the past few seasons. More importantly, DET is a different team at home(4-0, 3-0-1 ATS) and should not get points from a team in the same class... DET(+2.5)24 NYG 20 [3$]... I'm sorry, I'm back to this. Feel free to ignore this pick, but Jim Johnson versus a rookie QB is a mismatch and I dread to say, PHI still has some life left... PHI(-10)51 MIA 3 [3$]... Teams heading in different directions, STL has its stars back in the line-up, SF has Dilfer back under center. Try to convince me SF is not the worst team in the NFL right now... STL(-3)30 SF 10 [2$]... As always, upsizes and 2nd half plays are possible and likely.

Thursday Night

I was planning on staying away from a game wager in the ORE/AZ game, but the line has moved significantly and has prompted me to get involved. Some important facts: -Being ranked #2 in the country does not qualify as a valid trend/reason why you should lose -Losing to mediocre teams at home IS a valid trend/reason to pick against a team -A short week is a TERRIBLE thing to have when preparing for a "gimmicky" offense -REVENGE, especially when the better team is seeking the revenge is a valid trend/reason to wager on. All of these factors weigh prominently in this game tonight, more so than what was keeping me away from the game which was a national TV spot for a team that hasn't had one in awhile, particularly at home. I expect some resistance from AZ early, but ORE should take care of business handily... ORE(-10)42 AZ 20 [3$].

Monday Night 2nd Half

It will be surprising if SF scores... SEA(-4,2H) over SF [3$].

Monday Night

Some people like me either have to watch NFL football just because it's on, or maybe you have a fantasy football interest, or maybe you are actually a fan of one of these teams. This short list pretty much summarizes the reasons to watch this miserable game tonight. I am here to add another reason to the list... I believe there is a clear side to favor from a wagering standpoint. On top of not being able to find the end zone with a map, and the hysteria a home crowd like SEA can whip itself up into for a Monday night game, the father of SF Coach Mike Nolan passed away this week, surely diminishing the preparation he was able to put into the game. As poorly as SEA has played in recent weeks, they still stand atop the NFC West, the rain plays to their favor, and as luck would have it, their injured RB creates an upgrade while a still gimpy Gore will be hesitant at best on a wet field with a bad ankle. Not quite what we had last Monday, but expect a comfortable win for SEA... SEA(-9) 31 SF 10 [5$].

2nd Half

SD has done nothing on offense, IND started to get it going...IND -7,2H over SD [5$].

Added NFL Game & Upsize

NO line came down...NO(-10,-120) over STL[1$]... CLE is on a 4 game Over trend which tends to inflate the O/U. Last 5 head-to-head match-ups Over is 4-0-1, with all lines between 32.5-36.5. CLE has an offense now, but this will be a traditional, hard fought division matchup...PIT 24 CLE 17, UN 47 [2$].

2nd Half

Miami can cover -4 in the 2nd half of the last game in The Orange Bowl, right? Mia(-4,2H) over UVA [2$].

Lots of smaller picks

This week doesn't present many high profile games to get into, but there are a lot of lines that look suspect. I am going to increase number of picks, reduce size this week... CFB... Rutgers beats up on inferior competition... RU(-20)38 Army 7 [3$]... Temple has hung w/ teams, PSU doesn't have the knockout punch... PSU 30 TU(+24.5) 17 [2$]... UK is still in the hunt for a major bowl and who even knows if they can still win the SEC East, Vandy isn't that good... UK(-3.5)34 Vandy 20 [2$]... ND getting points from an academy just looked funny, expect a bounce back...ND(+3.5) 28 AF 20 [2$]... UGA definitely can win the SEC East, Auburn is overrated... UGA(-2) 23 AUB 16 [2$]... Illinois is sneaky good and shouldn't get 15 from anyone in the Big 10... OSU 30 ILL(+15) 24 [2$]... KU hasn't beaten a team with a winning record and looks like the latest unbeaten to fall... OK St.(+6)37 KU 33 [3$]...NFL... BUF is starting to look pretty good, MIA continues to look really bad... BUF(-3)27 MIA 13 [3$]... NO is on a roll and STL just wants the pain to stop... NO(-11.5)35 STL 14 [2$]... Some supermodel named Brooks is likely to play QB for MIN, I doubt she will be better than that chick Kelly or that freaky bitch Tarvaris. GB is solid against the run, I'm expecting especially against people named Adrian... GB(-6)27 MIN 14 [2$].

2nd Half

WVU (-7,-125) over L'ville [2$].

Thursday Night

So L'ville is going to WVU and is in the press talking about how much they want to win... I didn't really expect that since L'ville appears to have mailed it in. I'm going to be cautious and say that they will stick around in the game, at least early. The angle in this game, I believe, is the O/U, because 65 O/Us are reserved for teams that each score in the 30s, and there is only one team in this game that does that. Perhaps by design, L'ville has scored 24, 17 & 28 in their trailing 3 games, probably to protect a pretty shoddy defense. WVU has held up its end of the bargain by scoring a ton of points, but have mixed in a defense that has not allowed over 24 points this season and is on a stretch of allowing 3, 13, 14, 21, 7 & 14 in their trailing 6 games. If L'ville is able to keep it competitive, the score will be lower than expected. The ideal scenario has a tight game in the 1st half allowing us to circle back for WVU in the 2nd half as we have many times this season. WVU 34 L'ville 21 (U65)[3$].

Monday Night

Throw out everything you think you know about PIT and BAL. This is not a defensive battle anymore, at least not like it used to be. Forget about trends because PIT is a totally different team without Bill Cowher. BAL is 4-3 with wins versus NYJ, AZ, SF & STL, that is not very impressive. The defense isn't what it used to be and with both corners likely to miss the game, look out. PIT has opened it up on offense, giving more freedom to Big Ben, and he has grown into the role. Fast Willie has been extremely effective as a result. This offense has weapons everywhere. So, plan on catching the early train in to work tomorrow, because you will be able to go to bed early tonight... PIT(-9)34 BAL 13 [5$]... over 36 [3$].

2nd Half

NE -4,2H over IND [5$].

2nd Half

NO (Pk,-150,2H) over JAX [2$].

2nd Half

SD -3,-125, 2H over MIN v[2$].

3-team Parlay

TEN ML/ SD ML/PIT -6.5(buy 2.5 from -9) [2/4.06$].

UConn isn't that bad?

I have been posed this question by a reader, and due to the fact that I am having a pretty good week and I am awake an hour earlier than expected due to daylight savings, I will address it. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. WVU is the one-eyed man, that one eye being its offense. That makes UConn the only guy who can afford a seeing eye dog. So, yes, relative to the rest of the Big East, UConn is not as bad as I have made them out to be, however I think it is mostly a product of how poor the Big East is, now securely the worst major conference. On a positive note, RU has been officially welcomed back to the rank of mediocre program because it did not strike while the iron was hot, only getting somewhere between the 35th-50th best recruiting class after last season's cinderella run. Tickets to sit amongst the football challenged will soon be freely available again and state taxes to build new roads in the New Brunswick area can now be diverted to education, the world is getting back to its entropy state.

2nd Half

3 INTs, 9 penalties & a blocked FG & only trailing by 3 is a good spot to be in. LSU is moving the ball, Bama is not... LSU(-6,2H) over Bama [3$].

More Picks

Tex(-3,2H) over Ok.St. [2$]...3-team ML parlay...Ore/SD(NFL)/NE [2.2/304$]...Upsizes... Ore(-7) over ASU [4$ to 5$]...RU(+2) over UConn[3$ to 4$].

One More CFB Side & 2 Totals

UF will be merciless on Vandy today...UF(-14)45 Vandy 10 [2$]...Don't know who will win, but the Navy/ND "grudge match" will stay low... ND 23 Navy 21 (UN 57) [2$]... OSU will hold serve (so that Mich can be the team to knock them off, but again, scoring will be at a premium...OSU 20 Wisc 13 (UN 45) [2$].