CFB Pick

If not for awful officials' calls, UConn would have lost to a bad Louisville team and TEMPLE!!!! If not for missed FGs and red zone turnovers, So. Fl. would have won by 14 last week. The luck has to end somewhere... RU(+2)34 UConn 17 [3$].

Early Picks

Saw a few lines I like right now... CFB... ORE(-7) over ASU [5$]...NFL... NE(-4.5) over IND[5$]... TEN(-4) over CAR [4$]... JAX(+3.5) over NO [4$]...more to come later in the week.

Monday Night 2nd Half

Good value chase since it saves you the DEN -7 2nd half for the 1-point win. DEN(-3,@H,+110) over GB [3$].

Monday Night

So I traveled to a lame city, fought with my wife, did all of the work on my picks earlier in the week, and ended the weekend with a net +0.10$(2.10$ for the week if you include Thursday night). What a waste! ... Monday night matches an AFC team versus an NFC team. That type of match-up ended up 3-0 straight-up and ATS this week and has been the only nugget of wisdom to use this season in a difficult year(that I am starting to get the better of mind you). A -3 point spread from the home team suggests an even neutral field match-up, however a solid AFC team is probably 6-7 points better than a solid NFC team on a neutral field. This is that type of match-up and this line obliges us to go with the AFC team at a discount... DEN(-3)24 GB 14 [4$].

Upsize

USF(-4.5) over UConn [2$] added onto [3$] @ -5.

Road Warrior(s)

What a Saturday of CFB coming up as there are several matchups between ranked teams or with ranked teams versus teams that can knock them off... again. What we are going through in CFB is a statistical anomaly with top 10 teams getting knocked off by inferior teams. It is to the point where oddsmakers are now setting spreads to account for this, and that is where value comes out. This set of lines specifically addresses what is going on in CFB and like all statistical anomalies, things will normalize. In the meantime, I am going to take the bait and take the "better" teams either getting points or giving fewer than they deserve to... on the NFL front, I am doing the same, except I am going with one of the strongest trends in NFL wagering, going against the mighty Pats minus an obscene 16 points to a good Skins team(fair value on this line is a TD or more lower). So while you are on your couch, enjoying a great slate of football, I will be on the road in Nashville, watching my wife's alma mater Red(skins) Hawks against Vandy. Don't feel too bad for me though, I will be drinking like a college kid, looking @ Southern college girls... in my own road warrior mode, that is the theme of these picks... VT has beaten no one unless you think one-dimensional CLEM is good and might be the worst top 10 team ever. Add in a QB issue and BCs #1 rushing D... BC(+3) 23 VT 14 [3$]... UConn IS the worst ranked team ever and So. Fl. sees the big picture that it is still in position to get to a BCS bowl...So. Fl.(-5) 37 UConn 14 [3$]... USC and its elite D is getting points in the Pac-10...USC(+3) 30 Ore 19 [2$]... UGA is strong on the road, especially with an obscene 9 points...UGA(+9) 27 UF 24 [2$]... How much fun do you think it was to be in Columbia this week? UT is not very good, Bama was not a complete fluke... So. Car.(+3) 24 UT 17 [2$]... RU can't stop the run, WVU can run... WVU(-6.5) 38 RU 24 [2$]... I have no choice on this one, I won't be able to enjoy the game without a real rooting interest... M-OH(+14) 20 Vandy 14 [2$]...NFL... The Pats run HAS to come to an end at some point... NE33 WAS(+16) 24 [2$]... The NFC is bad, and CAR is bad amongst the bad... IND(-6.5) 30 CAR 10 [2$]... Don't let a win versus the Jets fool you, CIN is really bad too & PIT is angry... PIT(-3.5) 34 CIN 17 [2$]... I probably won't have access to a computer until Sunday afternoon, but keep an eye out for 2nd half plays, good teams, perhaps they turned the ball over in the 1st, you know what to look for.

I Want My Money Back!

Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese called the missed call I complained about in the L'ville/UConn game "terrible" and he has punished the referee who missed the call in some fashion. I will be going to my mailbox starting Wednesday to see if I got my check from the Big East to ease my pain. The joke of it is, I think the So. Fl./RU call is the one that needs fixing... I guess when the darling of the Big East, RU is involved, and the game got great ratings and gave the conference great exposure, it's OK for the refs to f-up the game. As long as we know the rules going forward...

Monday Night

My apologies again on not posting a pick but I once again was unable to get to a computer for my 2nd half DAL pick yesterday. Once again, it was a pretty obvious style pick. Unfortunately I am doing a bad job of making my blog an entirely accurate representation of my picks and it is making me look bad... Tonight we have the highly touted Colts and the suddenly highly touted Jags. I was listening to the radio yesterday and some idiot actually called them the 3rd best team in the league. Nonetheless, if talking about style, this is one of those I can't explain other than they play physical, but the Jags always give the Colts fits. I expect the same tonight, but I am not prepared to make a side selection in the game. My preference is for the under in this game, however, my selection is to middle the entire game, taking 12 points on each line to fit this competitive game into... remember, we really only have to be right twice since we're doing it on the same game... IND +9/JAX +15/O 33/ U 57 [2$].

NFL Picks

Just the picks for today...SF(+9) over NYG [2$]... WAS(-8) over AZ [2$]... DAL(-9) over MIN [2$]... NYJ(+6.5) over CIN [2$]... 3-team ML Par PHI/PIT/BOS(MLB) [2$/4.72$]...I hit on the 2nd half on LSU last night, but was at a friend's house and didn't want to look like a degenerate going on his computer to post the pick. It will not go on my record, but for ALL of you that follow me, I hope you knew that was right in my wheelhouse and you used it yourself.

Upsize

USC moved to -17 and I am adding 1$ at that level. USC -17 over ND [1$].

2nd Half

Looked like too many points in the OK 2nd half, but So. Car. turned the ball over 2 times and is at home. So. Car. (-7.5, 2H) over Vandy [3$].

Explaination Required

How did a Big East officials crew review a play in Thursday's So. Fl./RU game and call a brand new penalty for illegal forward lateral on the review taking a TD off the board for So. Fl., then another Big East crew miss a call in Friday's L'ville/UConn game on a fair catch signal, but was unable to look at the replay and recognize its missed call and correct it? Am I not talking about the same thing here? My thought was that a new penalty was not allowed to be called, much like they cannot go to the review to call a holding penalty they did not see live, but it was done in Thursday's game and not Friday's. The result is I lose 2 wagers where in each case the call went against me by enough to swing the result against me. CFB really needs to take a long look at itself, it is making a mockery of the 2007 season and I think it is already certain that the true champion of the nation cannot be crowned... we'll have to get them tomorrow.

Saturday CFB

Not much of interest this Saturday. I am looking for the 2 "best" teams to start putting something together and return to the top of the rankings. USC -17.5 versus ND is just a talent mismatch with the more talented team also more motivated. Look for USC to start its BCS charge. USC(-17.5)41 ND 6 [2$]... In spite of my bias in favor of lefty QBs, I find Brandon Cox repulsive. Against tough defenses he folds up like a lawn chair, LSU is tough and angry and will play like men playing against boys. LSU(-11)34 Aub 13 [2$]... I have several games on my 2nd half radar(WVU included) and may add a couple of games tomorrow, but all in all, this is a strange CFB season and this is a pivotal weekend, so I might just stick to my strongest picks, perhaps upsize them.

Last Night... & Tonight

So, as I said, I attended the So. Fl. @ RU game and have a few comments from the experience: -Schiano STOLE the game with a couple of gutsy fake kick calls. I said it had to be fluky, it was. -RU fans are some of the least knowledgeable I have ever come across, and I have Eagles season tickets. -I hate the rushing the field/court thing in general, but was in college once and understand the temptation. My issues with this particular rush are, first, I saw men old enough to be my father rush the field(pathetic), but second, and worse, RU fans missed the bigger picture here because if their team just took care of business when it had 10-point halftime leads against Cincy and MD, RU could have been the #2 team in the country going in to this game and this would not be a rush worthy event. Last night was more a time to lament what might have been than to celebrate. -On an additional note, I saw Erin Andrews up close a few times: -very attractive -a little awkward body-type, but still sexy -her love for sports is what puts her over, in another profession she likely wouldn't get noticed much -there was a 20-something blonde in the 6th row that should have been handed a mike and given EAs job on the spot. An RU grad I was with declared her EASILY the hottest girl ever to go to RU and I am sure he was right... Friday night is another one where I just can't figure out the line, but not so much that it needs to be steered clear of. L'ville is not as advertised preseason, but can certainly score. UConn basically took the rankings, turned them upside down, then started working its way down the list until it found someone it couldn't beat last week against UVA. That means UConn can beat teams ranked 85 and below essentially. L'ville will be inspired by last night's game knowing they control their own destiny in the Big East due to a strategic loss to a team that won't figure in any tie-breakers, 'Cuse. L'ville will lose to the better teams in the BE, but don't tell them yet. In a funny twist, L'ville actually seems more comfortable on the road this season(as disappointing teams often do) after holding the longest active home winning streak earlier this season. In the end, L'ville will score at a level UConn can't keep up with because UConn does not have the tools to exploit L'ville's poor pass defense. L'ville(-3) 45 UConn 31 [2$].

So. Fl. @ RU

The Count just scored some good seats for the game(will be incognito, please do not try to find me), and after more research and further reflection, I am upsizing this to a 5$ wager. So. Fl. (-2) over RU [5$].

Stop The Insanity!!!

I think most would agree this is the craziest CFB season in recent memory, if not ever. A high ranking is akin to a death sentence, usually administered immediately. It has gotten to the point that people assume high ranked teams not only will not cover, they will lose outright. It has swung in this direction all season, and now, at least this Thursday night, I believe it will swing back to normalcy as So. Fl. will hold serve and beat RU in NJ. As you can imagine, living in NJ, I am hearing it from all sides that RU will win this game, but I have news for everyone, this season's version of the Scarlet Knights really is not that good, I mean middle of the pack Big East, 30-50 rank nationally, probably closer to the 50 than the 30. RU has feasted on bad teams this season, but has struggled mightily against competent to good teams. While I do not consider So. Fl. elite, they are a legitimate top 10 team that does it the reliable way, playing tough defense and efficient offense. They are also doing it against much tougher competition than RU has faced. Problems RU faces this week include: -QB Mike Teel is not good to horrible with any sort of pressure, and So. Fl. is sure to get pressure -virtually everyone on the So. Fl. defense is as fast as Ray Rice, if not faster making a 30-90 day much more likely than a 25-150 day(if RU does not run effectively, RU has no chance) -RU's defense, when facing competent(not even good) offenses is almost a sure bet to give up in excess of 400 yards... That leaves RU with a reliance on turnovers to beat a good team, which is always possible, but due to the relative randomness of turnovers, is not a good bet. The game RU wins includes a +2 or better TO ratio, PLUS an error in the kicking game by So. Fl. I will give you the kicking game error from So. Fl., but do not see anything other than a fluke-ish game giving RU a substantial TO advantage, not when So. Fl. is the pressing defense and RU is passive on defense and mistake prone when pressured on offense. I expect the game to be competitive, but the insanity stops and the #2 team holds up finally. So. Fl.(-2) 24 RU 16[3$].

Monday Night Parlay

Not your typical Side & O/U Parlay though... we're going to pull in the amazing Colorado Rockies @ -179 to keep it rolling and just reduce our leverage to take NYG on the ML -230. Same strategy that was successful this weekend, just using baseball on one end. NYG are very Jekyll & Hyde, have been for awhile. Have lost to ATL with a green Matt Schaub making his 1st career start, even lost to Doug Johnson. Those were better overall ATL teams mind you, so I just think we can rule out the upset, but would like to lighten our load to take NYG, thus, insert the Rockies. Expect NYG by a TD, that's not comfortable enough for me to lay 4.5, this ML Par fills in nicely. NYG ML/ Col(MLB) ML [4.06$ to win 4.99$].

NFL Pick

SEA -5.5 over NO [2$]

NFL Picks

There is very little on the NFL slate that looks appealing other than what is already in place. To summarize, I have 2 teams left on a 4-team ML parlay still open as I hit on UGA and So. Car. leaving PHI & NE in a ML parlay with heavy leverage (nearly 3 to 1). I also have NE -4 for 5$. There is only one other play I like today as V.Young leads a TEN team that is just in the 2nd tier in the AFC behind the elite teams, but still legitimate and definitely better than any of the NFC teams. TB appeared to be doing something special this season defeating NO, STL then CAR(w/ Carr @ QB), but a review of those opponents now reveals they really haven't beaten anyone. Expect this to be another example of the AFC dominance, again put into a ML parlay w/ PHI. TEN/PHI ML Par [2.5$/5.85$].

2nd Half

UGA -3.5(2H) over Vandy [3$].

2nd Half CFB

I'm going to chase Neb who is getting slaughtered by Ok. St. Because, "I'M A MAN! I'M 33!"... Neb (-3.5, 2H) over Ok. St. [2$].

Rest of CFB & some NFL

Starting all of these as 2$ selections, but may upsize based on how earlier selections work out. Everyone is calling for an upset of BC by ND, but I just don't see it. BC(-13) 37 ND 13 [2$]... UGA gets an easy road match-up @ Vandy UGA(-7) 28 Vandy 3 [2$]... Elite SEC team goes to lowly ACC team. Looks like the oddsmakers bought into what they saw 1st half last week from NC, I don't So. Car. (-7)33 NC 9 [2$]... SEC as a whole is a bit more tightly packed than this line suggests. KY had a couple of extra days to lick their wounds and prepare, LSU has earned its #1 ranking, but has only played 1 road game & it was against a weak Miss. St. team. This will be different. LSU 28 KY(+10) 27 [2$]... I really don't get these big spreads ASU is laying to Pac-10 opponents, this is just not a top-15 team. Wash(+11) 26 ASU 24 [2$]. Using a couple of the above teams in an exotic with some NFL teams for a 4-team ML parlay, PHI is strong off the bye, you have the stories on the rest of the games in this post, UGA/SC/PHI/NE (2.5$ to win 7.18$)... NE is still showing @ -4 on one book I use, but others have already migrated upwards to -5.5 and will likely move to -6+ by kickoff. Belichick has something special for Romo, Dallas has not beaten anyone and the AFC is far superior to the NFC. Add in some bulletin board fodder from Wade Phillips(hasn't everyone learned not to battle the Pats in the press?) and we have the makings of a statement game blowout. NE(-4)33 DAL 14 [5$].

Early Saturday CFB

I'm going to work myself through the day today, starting with these early picks: RU(-17) over Cuse [3$], Neb(-3.5) over Ok. St. [2$], So. Fl.(-11) over CFU [2$].

Friday CFB

SJSU often rises to the occasion, Hawaii makes the long trip to the mainland on a short week. Expect Hawaii to be a little sluggish as they have been early most of this season and SJSU to play inspired out of the gate. SJSU +10(1H) over Hawaii [3$].

2nd Half CFB

Navy & Pitt are trading blows, Pitt is running the type of offense that is susceptible to errors especially with a Frosh QB. Navy gets the ball first & that may be decisive. Navy +3(2H) over Pitt [3$].

2nd Half

TEN -5(2H) over ATL [1$]

Upsize

JAX -1 over KC [4$ from 2$].

2nd Half

LSU (-4.5)(2H) over FL [3$]

Upsize

LSU(-7) over FL [4$]

2nd Half

Mia-FL -6 over NC [1$]

Weekend Selections

I know I promised a new strategy, but after deeper research, I chose not to go in that direction. The strategy involved using IF bets to lever up our wagers on plays I felt stronger about and to minimize losses on picks I didn't like as much, but I don't think we're there yet. I think I have a strong set of picks this weekend, and I'm just going to be conventional... CFB... Experience versus youth in what the media is touting as a heavyweight battle, but there is really only one heavyweight in the game, the other team WAS very good last year. Expect Tebow to blow a gasket in Death Valley and get knocked around a bit. LSU (-7)27 FL 10 [2$]... UGA are great road warriors and they are going up against a Tenn team that really is not that good. Tough SEC battle nonetheless, but the better team prevails UGA(-1) 24 TENN 16 [2$]... ASU really does not have the right to give more than a TD to anyone but Stan in the PAC 10, yet they are on the road, giving 8.5 against a WSU team that can score points WSU (+8.5) 33 ASU 30 [2$]... Red River Shootout has lost a lot of its luster, important thing to note is this is an intense rivalry. OK is probably a bit overrated, Tex was about right, but can definitely hang with anyone. OK 27 Tex(+12.5) 24 [1$]...MIA-FL has had a re-birth with the re-insertion of Kyle Wright into the line-up, NC has shown an ability to lose to anyone, anywhere MIA(-7) 27 NC 10 [1$]...MD is coming off a high where its backup QB led the way, yet the plan is to still go with the original starter. Even if he can't go, it's no matter, GT is a solid defensive unit and will stifle either QB GT(-3) 19 MD 9 [1$]... Duke has covered 4 straight since I put my neck out on them in the 1st game, but is still mostly Duke. A well coached WF team will not give easy opportunities and will take advantage of the long layoff. WF(-7) 27 Duke 13 [1$]... all of the top 10 teams were put on watch last week and that will work to the advantage of USF. USF will be easy to motivate knowing they were FL-Atl just a few years ago and don't ever want to be again. No let down here USF(-17) 41 FL-Atl 14 [1$]... NFL... JAX hasn't performed well off byes in the Del Rio era, but is by far the better team here and is motivated by lack of post-bye week success. KC comes off a high over SD and will not be as effective on offense against JAX. May upsize as this is my best bet of the weekend. JAX(-1) 24 KC 13 [2$]... NYG not that good, NYJ not that bad, NFC really bad, AFC very good. NYJ(+4) 23 NYG 20[2$]... Rules of engagement state you should always go against teams that have 4 straight covers because the lines are skewed somewhere in the 4-6 point neighborhood. This goes against what I said earlier in the week to always take NE, but I will believe the time tested trends over my own nonsense most times. WF was a pick like this above, 3 NFL picks apply here CHI(+4) 24 GB 17 [2$]... NE 31 CLE(+16) 21 [1$]... STL(+4) 9 AZ 7 (1$).

Thursday Night

I have done a lot of soul searching this week and I am going to roll out a strategy I have used before to get through some tough times, in the meantime, I do have a conventional straight wager for Thursday. This is one of my favorite match-ups of the season, I like both teams a lot. Earlier this season I rolled out the thought that I was going to try to become a So. Car. fan, going as far as requesting and receiving a Cocks jersey as a birthday present. I then promptly went out and bet against them, and I'm doing it again this week. Kentucky is poor on defense, but I just do not think a Chris Smelley led offense can exploit that defense to the extent I know Andre Woodson will exploit a JASper Brinkley-less USC defense. Kentucky just seems to care about the ball a bit more and is more dynamic at the same time. Woodson should be the Heisman front-runner right now and this nationally televised game should act as an introduction to some of the voters. I think the game will be very competitive, but Kentucky makes the plays and doesn't make the mistakes. Kent (+3.5) 33 So. Car. 27 [3$].

State of The Count

I have spoken to several gamblers, professional and otherwise, and to a person, none can recollect a 2 week period like the one we just left. Nothing seems to make sense other than parity has arrived in the NFL. Minus a couple of elite teams (NE & IND, DAL so far, but don't expect it to last), everyone else is very very close. The rules of engagement must change to survive as a bettor, and the rules are: if you can find a reason to take the points, take them, unless if it is against NE or IND. IND happens to have some clear, do not touch opponents(JAX, TEN & NE), but other than those games, take NE, IND and the points everywhere else. The nice thing about such a strategy going forward is that the oddsmakers have a bias towards trying to get you to take favorites at inflated prices, so this should work out well. Tonight, I have upsized NE to a 5$ wager because I feel this is a mismatch and having it lead off the week gives us plenty of time to un-do the size if I am wrong... Now, as for the Eagles, I will call last week versus DET the dead cat bounce for D-Mac. The lack of confidence and utter fear he is playing the QB position with, to the point his back foot hits the turf and he is immediately thinking of, and moving towards getting out of the pocket. Problem is, his legs can't get him out of there anymore and he is doomed to try to survive on his passing skills alone, which most would agree, are only slightly above average. I hope the Eagles can somehow win through this problem and truly want to see AJ Feeley under center asap, with the Kevin Kolb era starting this off-season. I definitely foresee D-Mac begging out of town before the season is out, going to either Minnesota or Chicago in the off-season, hopefully for a high draft pick. I have already traded him off of my fantasy team as of 30 minutes ago and will be going through my e-mail archive to find the company I used to change my TO jersey to a Reggie Brown jersey as I have 3 authentic D-Mac jerseys, 2 destined to say "Kolb 4", one becoming a "Westbrook 36". Please do not misconstrue this as typical Philly fan complaining, this is all said with a clear head, an acceptance of what I witnessed last night and a thorough understanding o how the City of Philly will treat D-Mac as the season goes on. I guess I will miss the old D-Mac, but the new, immobile, insecure, race-card-pulling one needs to go.