Stop The Insanity!!!

I think most would agree this is the craziest CFB season in recent memory, if not ever. A high ranking is akin to a death sentence, usually administered immediately. It has gotten to the point that people assume high ranked teams not only will not cover, they will lose outright. It has swung in this direction all season, and now, at least this Thursday night, I believe it will swing back to normalcy as So. Fl. will hold serve and beat RU in NJ. As you can imagine, living in NJ, I am hearing it from all sides that RU will win this game, but I have news for everyone, this season's version of the Scarlet Knights really is not that good, I mean middle of the pack Big East, 30-50 rank nationally, probably closer to the 50 than the 30. RU has feasted on bad teams this season, but has struggled mightily against competent to good teams. While I do not consider So. Fl. elite, they are a legitimate top 10 team that does it the reliable way, playing tough defense and efficient offense. They are also doing it against much tougher competition than RU has faced. Problems RU faces this week include: -QB Mike Teel is not good to horrible with any sort of pressure, and So. Fl. is sure to get pressure -virtually everyone on the So. Fl. defense is as fast as Ray Rice, if not faster making a 30-90 day much more likely than a 25-150 day(if RU does not run effectively, RU has no chance) -RU's defense, when facing competent(not even good) offenses is almost a sure bet to give up in excess of 400 yards... That leaves RU with a reliance on turnovers to beat a good team, which is always possible, but due to the relative randomness of turnovers, is not a good bet. The game RU wins includes a +2 or better TO ratio, PLUS an error in the kicking game by So. Fl. I will give you the kicking game error from So. Fl., but do not see anything other than a fluke-ish game giving RU a substantial TO advantage, not when So. Fl. is the pressing defense and RU is passive on defense and mistake prone when pressured on offense. I expect the game to be competitive, but the insanity stops and the #2 team holds up finally. So. Fl.(-2) 24 RU 16[3$].