10/01/2007
State of The Count
I have spoken to several gamblers, professional and otherwise, and to a person, none can recollect a 2 week period like the one we just left. Nothing seems to make sense other than parity has arrived in the NFL. Minus a couple of elite teams (NE & IND, DAL so far, but don't expect it to last), everyone else is very very close. The rules of engagement must change to survive as a bettor, and the rules are: if you can find a reason to take the points, take them, unless if it is against NE or IND. IND happens to have some clear, do not touch opponents(JAX, TEN & NE), but other than those games, take NE, IND and the points everywhere else. The nice thing about such a strategy going forward is that the oddsmakers have a bias towards trying to get you to take favorites at inflated prices, so this should work out well. Tonight, I have upsized NE to a 5$ wager because I feel this is a mismatch and having it lead off the week gives us plenty of time to un-do the size if I am wrong... Now, as for the Eagles, I will call last week versus DET the dead cat bounce for D-Mac. The lack of confidence and utter fear he is playing the QB position with, to the point his back foot hits the turf and he is immediately thinking of, and moving towards getting out of the pocket. Problem is, his legs can't get him out of there anymore and he is doomed to try to survive on his passing skills alone, which most would agree, are only slightly above average. I hope the Eagles can somehow win through this problem and truly want to see AJ Feeley under center asap, with the Kevin Kolb era starting this off-season. I definitely foresee D-Mac begging out of town before the season is out, going to either Minnesota or Chicago in the off-season, hopefully for a high draft pick. I have already traded him off of my fantasy team as of 30 minutes ago and will be going through my e-mail archive to find the company I used to change my TO jersey to a Reggie Brown jersey as I have 3 authentic D-Mac jerseys, 2 destined to say "Kolb 4", one becoming a "Westbrook 36". Please do not misconstrue this as typical Philly fan complaining, this is all said with a clear head, an acceptance of what I witnessed last night and a thorough understanding o how the City of Philly will treat D-Mac as the season goes on. I guess I will miss the old D-Mac, but the new, immobile, insecure, race-card-pulling one needs to go.
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