9/30/2007
Theft
If you had USC like I did, you were robbed from tonight. The timing and magnitude of penalties was disgusting. There were at least 5, 15-yard penalties that were phantom calls, the un-catchable pass interference followed by the pass interference when the Wash receiver was riding the USC corner's back, the unnecessary roughness calls on the in bounds hit on Locker, the in bounds hit on the Wash interception return and especially the roughness called on the screen pass that was dropped where the receiver kept batting the ball around on the ground, that is always a potential lateral, especially when the receiver continues to handle the ball. And those are the specifics remember, I am certain there were others. On a day where the favorites were all struggling, it seemed this official crew wanted to be a part of history. It didn't factor into the result, but even the play where an interception was ruled on the field in the end zone for Wash when at first glance on TV the ball was obviously dropped, even the Wash players reaction gave away the fact that he dropped the ball. I don't like to complain about the officials, but the crowd never gets in the game without the gift calls and USC wins by 4 TDs as expected instead of sneaking past by a FG. I got some back with Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik, but I should be sizing my book up for a knockout punch right now instead of licking my wounds. Going to take a look at NFL games some more and probably up-size a little to try to get some of the good work done earlier back.
9/29/2007
2nd Half Pick
4 PFs, 2 INTs(1 a tip for a TD), averaging 10 yards per carry, USC should roll 2nd half... USC -11(2H) over Wash [2$].
2nd Half Pick
Florida in the swamp, some costly penalties and a bad call on a TD created the 14-0 1st half. Great play to try to cancel out the game wager... UF -8(2H) over Aub [2$].
2nd Half
Texas -7(2H) over KSU [1$]... RU -9.5(2H) over MD [1$] big middle... Cal/Ore over 31(2H) [1$].
9/28/2007
No theme, no humor, just picks...
Been taking a beating lately, in no mood for humor. Upsizing some picks for the expected wave to come...USF +7 WVU [2$]... ND +23 Pur [2$]... Cal +6 Ore [2$]... PSU -3 ILL [1$]... UF -17 AUB [2$]... USC -20.5 Wash[2$]... Cuse -1.5 Mia-OH [1$] NFL... PHI -2.5 NYG [2$]... MIN +3 GB [1$]... HOU -3 ATL [1$]... PIT -5.5 AZ [1$]... NE -7 CIN [1$]... Potential upsizes and 2nd half picks to come.
9/27/2007
Thursday Night Picks
So. Miss. @ Boise St. presents a very interesting mid-major match-up between the "king" of mid-majors and a very strong program that often has the talent to hang with the big conference teams. Both teams have great running games with inexperienced QBs on offense and great front 7 defenders able to stop the run. Boise St. is a household name and I believe the oddsmakers are forcing you to play a hefty premium to wager in their direction, I believe even with a daunting homefield advantage, this one should not even be a TD line, I might go as far as saying a 4.5-5 point line is more suitable than the +11 you get with So. Miss. Furthermore, this is not your father's Boise St., scoring 30+ is not likely against a strong opponent, thus the 51 point over is high as well. I have 2 plays, Boise 23 So.Miss. (+11) 19, under 51, [1$][1$]. I will be posting my other selections for this week tomorrow.
9/24/2007
9/23/2007
Back to the well...
I promise, this is the last time you will see me pick PHI if they blow this pick. PHI ML/SD ML/ NO ML [1$ to win 1.8$]
2nd Half Average Down
Liked UCLA @ -7, going to average down with -3, 2H. UCLA (-3,2H) over Wash [1$].
9/22/2007
2nd Half Pick
Can't say I'm a big fan of the 2007 version of Wisc, but @ home vs. a so-so Iowa team is good 2H value Wisc(-4, 2H) over Iowa.
9/21/2007
1 CFB game, 1 NFL game
Everyone loves LSU, and the numbers suggest you should. Going into this week's game with So. Car., there are several points that make me want to buck the trend. I don't consider LSU battle tested yet as the team that was supposed to do this, VT, really is not that good. Last week, against an inferior opponent, HC Les Miles decided to start Ryan Perrilloux and REST senior "team leader" and starter Matt Flynn. Perrilloux responded with huge output as expected, but also enlightened a disturbing trend, while better at executing the offense, Flynn stifles the big play for LSU with his efficiency, the big plays to date have all come with Perrilloux under center. I don't know that a QB controversy is brewing, but this fact may come front and center this Saturday as So. Car. has been very successful at stopping the pass this season. If this one is competitive in the 2nd quarter, Miles may find himself in a bind when he goes to Perrilloux to ignite the offense. In general, I do not think much of Miles as a tactician, while his counterpart The Ol' Ball Coach is just that, a tactician. So. Car., despite his off field transgressions, is behind its leader Blake Mitchell who has a Jim McMahon, just get it done and inspire the team quality that works for this team. So. Car. is starting to look a lot like last year's Florida team that was able to manage its emotions in a tough SEC and peak when it needed to for big games. So. Car. also has a distinct advantage in the kicking game that seems more likely to be a factor than an 18-point spread. If you followed me on USF 2-weeks ago and UK last week when I called for outright wins, follow me here. Even if I'm only partly right, you have a big cushion with the spread. So. Car. (+18) 23 LSU 20 [1$]... Back to the theme of the week with an additional NFL pick, yes NE is very good, but NE is especially good at rising to the most important occassions (i.e. vs. SD after CameraGate), but usually plays it close to the vest with softer match-ups, trying to win without having to put anything on tape for the rest of the league. I expect that type of game in this division match-up. NE 27 BUF (+17) 17 [1$].
9/19/2007
9/18/2007
The "Let's Not Start Sucking Each Other's D***s Quite Yet" Picks
We are at an inflection point in the season, both College and Pro where we don't really have enough information to start relying just on this year's info, but we do have enough to say certain teams are not as good or as bad as they look. The oddsmakers are trying to make us believe, based on limited information, we have enough to go on and are putting up lines accordingly. Trends may be lying, there is a lot of feel to this week. In a tribute to The Wolf, these picks all include either a team off to a great start that probably isn't what it seems, or a good team that might have looked bad early on: NCAA- TA&M, not that good Miami(-3) 23 TA&M 16 [1$]... L'ville D is bad, but anyone can stop 'Cuse L'ville(-36.5) 51 'Cuse 6 [1$]... Mich beat ND... Congratulations, but that's really not impressive. Expect the home crowd to turn at the 1st sign of trouble PSU(-3) 34 Mich 20 [1$]... UGA not that bad & BAMA DEFINITELY not that good... UGA (+4) 31 BAMA 16 [1$]... UCLA not nearly that bad, J.Locker not that good yet... UCLA(-7) 30 Wash 13 [1$]...NFL- GB not that good, SD not as bad as @NE. AFC vs. NFC classic... SD(-3) 38 GB 13 [1$]... TB not that good, STL not that bad STL(+4) 27 TB 17 [1$]... DAL not that good...CHI(-3) 28 DAL 16 [1$]... CLE & D.Anderson not that good, OAK D, not Cincy...OAK(-3) 20 CLE 10 [1$]... 49ers look ugly, but winning ugly(or covering in this case) is an art and should be respected... PIT 28 SF(+10)27 [1$]. I really want to get GT
involved, but can't find a line yet. Probably more to come later in the week.
9/17/2007
Monday Night
I believe we are looking at an O/U number that is based on the offensive ineptitude shown by these two teams in Week 1. In fact, you may look at this game and have difficulty seeing this go over. That is a big reason why I believe it will. PHI has been prolific on offense in TV games and I expect last week to simply be an exercise in chipping off rust for D.McNabb. On the other side of the ball, I am not sold on how PHI stopping a strong running game of WAS. As a homer, I want to say PHI gets close to the over itself in a rout, but as a realist, this looks like a hard fought game where J.Campbell makes a few plays to keep WAS in it, but falls to a more battle tested, hungrier PHI team. PHI 27 WAS 23 (over 38)[1$]
9/16/2007
9/15/2007
9/14/2007
Uncle Buck Specials
My Uncle Buck always bets against teams instead of on teams, I'm too tired to give any more of an explaination. WF(-19.5) 34 Army 3 [1$], ILL(-11.5) 28 Syr 0 [1$].
NFL Picks
Let me start by introducing an new type of wager I have been using with great success over the past few seasons, the money line(ML) parlay. Parlays, unto themselves are a bad bet, but I have found using the ML in a parlay to wager on teams you were very confident would win, but were not comfortable with the point spread allows you to get on the closest thing to a "sure thing" on one, or multiple parts of a wager, in essence getting leverage on another part of your wager. I will use this week's wager as an example. IND ML/NO ML/ PHI ML(1.2$ to win 2.03$). In their own right, IND & PHI are -300, NO is -195, all pretty heavy odds to lay to wager on each individual team, all requiring a lot of money at risk to make any kind of profit. If you were to wager 1$ on each team, and lose one game, you are not profiting that week, if you lose 2 or 3 games, you have wiped out any success you may have had elsewhere and are looking at a negative week. However putting these teams into a parlay dramatically reduces your downside(much more important than increasing upside), and a funny thing happens in probability with 3 out of 4 shots, they come out with much greater frequency than 3 out of 4. In this case, IND won 7 straight against TEN before TEN shocked them last season, is it likely TEN will win 2 straight? Probably not. Throw out 2005(pretty easy for PHI fans) and PHI won 6 straight vs. WASH, is coming home on Monday night, and is coming off a loss, a pretty good spot to expect a PHI win. That leaves us with NO with extra rest, coming off an embarrassing loss, going to TB face an already banged up TB team that probably isn't very good anyway. But now, we're not laying 2 to 1, we're getting about 1.7 to 1. Not guaranteed, but we are protecting our downside and giving ourselves a great chance to hit all 3 picks. Furthermore, if the 1st 2 picks hit, we have artificially created a 7 point middle for the PHI game where we can take all risk off the table(or some) and relax, and not worry if our beloved Iggles win by a TD or more... NYJ & BAL both likely to have new QBs under center, arguably, NYJ opens up its vertical passing game with its move to the #2 QB, while no positives can ever be drawn from a move to K.Boller at QB. This is just too many points for defensive minded teams BAL 23 NYJ(+11) 20 [1$]... JAX is a defense first team that runs the ball very well and well at home. ATL is just plain awful and should be testing the outer bounds of odds makers imaginations with 2 TD+ spreads versus IND & @NO later this season. JAX(-10) 27 ATL 6 [1$]... This is difficult to explain with past performance, but be patient, HOU is better than CAR. Going on the road to win is going to be a difficult new experience for HOU to conquer, but this is a confident, playoff contending AFC team facing an NFC team that may back into the playoffs because no one steps up to claim the spots. D.Robinson won't stop S.Smith, but will contain him and HC G.Kubiak will manage this to a FG game. CAR 24 HOU(+7) 23 [1$]... MIN has won 10 straight against DET, DET was impressive on offense vs. OAK, but also tends to be its own worst enemy and MIN has the defense to stop the M.Martz show causing a combined 10 TOs last season allowing a combined 13 yds. rushing(no, a digit is not missing). Expect the same here MIN(+3) 20 DET 16 [1$]...I think you knew this next pick was coming after my rant earlier this week, but NE has to lose some swagger after being exposed for cheating, the injured players on D will be too much to overcome against the SD offense, and the game just means more to SD after the post-game taunting on its field by NE players. SD(+4) 31 NE 20 [1$].
9/13/2007
Line Adjustment; 2nd Half Possibles
Looks like our frien Dr. Bob must have been reading my blog and put out Kentucky as a best bet, because the line has moved from the 6.5-7 range down to the 4-5 range. He's the only person who could move the lines that much without any game news, and while I do not subscribe, I see he has listed the game in his best bet package. Lesson learned, I had to get Kentucky in @ +5... For tonight, let's keep our eyes open for WVU & TCU for 2nd half action.
9/12/2007
College Football Picks
How do you wake a sleeping giant? Try taking away some of their #1 votes when they are idle. Heading into the season, this is one of the games I circled on my calendar as a great game that could result in a huge upset. Sorry to say, it's just not going to happen. Sam Keller has looked serviceable, but that's not going to get it done. The running game has been solid, but USCs D is coming off of 2 straight weeks of being tortured by Pete Carroll and his staff on the Idaho performance, they will be amped. Talent will prevail, especially since it is coupled with extra preparation and something to prove. USC(-9.5) 41 Neb 20 [1$]... Florida has gotten off to a blazing start in the defense of its national title, but it has come at the hands of WKy & Troy. Tennessee on the other hand comes in a little more battle tested having beaten So. Miss and lost to Cal. Specifically, this s the first game of any significance quarterbacked by Tim Tebow and played by many of the defensive starters of UF, and I believe it will show. While UF was the best team in college football last season, it struggled in several conference games because the SEC is tougher than any bowl game. UT in a minor upset Tenn(+8.5) 26 FL 23 [1$]... When you hook up with the ugly girl, it's best to just do what you have to do, and never talk about again Mich(-7.5) 27 ND 10 [1$] In honor of Peyton Manning and the Colts of 2006-7 and the Boston Red Sox of 2004, I give you Andre Woodson 2007. Where is the parallel you ask? Woodson has been losing to Brian Brohm at football(not basketball though) since he was a freshman in high school. Redemption has come in the form of a porous L'ville D, a home crowd that finally has a reason to go to football games and an inspired, focused Woodson that makes the day his. I see some books starting to move this one to +7, but my guys still have +6.5. I'm going to wait to try to get done @ +7 since I don't think a move to +6 is likely, but I won't need it. UK (+6.5-7)44 L'ville 42 [1$]
Appropriate Pats Punishment; Sports Guy Misses the Point
For all Sports Guy readers out there, I direct you to his column with Aaron Schatz on the Pats Cheating with caution, it is another homer response. Both Belechick-ites fail miserably to draw parallels between this event and other forms of cheating that have occurred in the NFL. Cheating by players is not the same as cheating by a coach. Cheating by front office men, even if the coach is amongst them, is not the same as a coach showing up Sunday afternoon with a plan in place to cheat during the competition. Parallels would be miking the visitors locker room or tapping into their communication devices. Would SG even attempt to defend, or explain those types of actions? I hope not. Plain and simple, this is having a buddy stand behind a poker opponent and advise you on his cards. Where I'm from, if you got caught doing that, you would end up like Worm and Mikey McD in Rounders and you would not be welcome at the game again. Of course, this is big business, and that is not an option, nor is forfeiting last week's game(even if it would improve The Count's record). Being a very fair person, I believe I have the solution. For the Jets game this season at a minimum, up to every game this season, but most likely just the Jets, or perhaps one game for each of the other AFC East opponents, the Pats should lose all communication privileges. No helmets with green dots, no headsets to coaches upstairs, NO HAND SIGNALS to players on the field. This is where the violation occurred, this is where they should be punished, not at the 2008 Draft. Put them back to the Stone Age of football when plays were shuttled in from the sidelines by players so they appreciate the existence of this technology in the game and why it is wrong to steal this from your opponent. If they manage to win this/these game(s), they will have proven that the fuss is about nothing, if they don't, their punishment comes in the form of losses, which they deserve in their quest for "the first-ever 16-0 season in NFL history."-SG Most likely, they will be made to look like the fools they are... Really Bill, the first 16-0 season? Nah, you're not a homer, and Belichick is not a genius, he's a scumbag.
9/10/2007
Monday Night Late Game
Best trend of the season: The Cardinals organization has an 87 season streak of almost all bad football. Talent is improved a little this year, but with a new coach and new system to grow accustomed to, it will be a process, not an event. On the other side, the 49ers are a once proud franchise that had to go back to the drawing board recently. On offense, there are several playmakers, on defense, some solid veterans have been added. This line speaks to a perception that the Cards are the team on the rise, but the 49ers are the real riser and should be a 3-5 point neutral field favorite, not a PICK. 49ers(-3) 27 AZ 16 [1$].
Monday Night
Apologies for the late post, I will be brief. C.Palmer nearly 2 seasons removed from his surgery figures to put up numbers this season, while the Ravens are a bit more dynamic with McGahee @ RB, plus M.Clayton is expected to be a 3rd year breakout WR. CIN/BAL over 40 [1$]
9/08/2007
2nd Half Pick
Hawaii is on our list. In a tough game, but can score in their sleep. Can't go undefeated as some predict if you lose youe 2nd game. Hawaii -14(2H) [1$]
2nd Half Pick
PSU trned the ball over 3 times, including for a TD & still leads by a TD. ND has nothing on offense. Act fast, it may move, this one is fixin' to get ugly. PSU -7(2H) [1$]
2nd Half Pick
My favorite pick of the day was UGA, 2nd half line is -3 saying they can lose and we still win this bet. This is good value, especially at home. UGA -3(2H) [1$]
2nd Half Pick
The only way FSU/UAB goes over 28 is if Charlie Ward sneaks into Drew Weatherford's uniform... might be more convincing if he chose Xavier Lee's uni. FSU/UAB (under 28, 2H) [1$]
Size Adjustments
Modified $ system for ease of use. Games affected: UGA from 2$ to 1.5$, PHI from 3$ to 2$, PIT from 3$ to 2$ & SD from 2$ to 1.5$. Also modified total return by +0.10$ from past wagers.
2nd Half Pick
OSU -13.5[0.5$] I just don't like Akron's bullpen. Akron last beat OSU in 1894 w/ John Heisman as coach.
9/07/2007
Fredo Mannings (team logo in the right column)
My keeper fantasy team w/ my middle school on up friends, the Fredo Mannings:McNabb, Westbrook, Barber, Gates, Ward, Reg. Brown, Nedney & Eagles D (-8.5) vs. 50 KENT... Brady, A.Peterson, D.Foster, Roy Williams, Cotchery, Branch, Mare & Ravens.
Final NFL Picks
I can't back this one up with any evidence because none really exists. I really like this team as a playoff contender. I got done on Sunday @ -2.5, but since I didn't release it until now, I will put the updated -3. HOU(-3) 27 KC 13 [1$]... I am really down on CAR this year. They are living off of a reputation established 3 years ago, but the truth is the D is aging & Delhomme is not very good. Thee Rams are a playoff team and dominate on their turf. Another Sunday line that was better, I got a PK, but show it @ -1. STL (-1) 24 CAR 10... You lose the anchor in the middle of your D line, the QB of your D @ safety and your best corner just got to camp a week ago. Your RB who has never handled a full NFL load(or full college load for that matter) is coming off of shoulder surgery, your QB has to rest his arm for fatigue, your top free agent acquisition hasn't worked with your QB and hasn't produced in years. You have thrived for years on the underdog inferiority complex, but now your team is full of high priced stars including 2 prima donna WRs, you are playing a coach that observed and learned everything under your HC, you expelled this team from the playoffs last season and you are going to their stadium full of miserable fans. Did I mention you are laying 6.5 points? I don't care if you are the NE Patriots, at best you win a close one. At worst... NYJ(+6.5) 23 NE 21 [1$]... Just a pick against the worst team in the NFL. MIN(-3) 17 ATL 9 [0.5$]
Final CFB Pick
In this space I declared Georgia an SEC title contender, I want to adjust that statement. This off-season I proclaimed to a few friends that I am now a South Carolina fan, enjoying the Ol' Ball Coach's approach to the college game and wanting to express my gratitude as an Eagles' fan for the tailspin he put the Redskins. Today I am here to tell you I was premature in each of these declarations. Georgia is a national title contender(please look at their schedule & tell me where the problems are? @Tenn, neutral vs FL, pretty easy by SEC standards) and I must not be that big a fan of the 'Cocks because the first tough spot I find them in, I am going against them. Issues I have with the other USC: -Mitchell will be chipping off rust while everyone else is at a faster game speed. Do you think Spurrier might take issue with this? -No playmakers on the outside. -On the road. -311(yes I confirmed with 2 sources) 311 yards rushing allowed to ULL last week. That just doesn't seem like the type of thing you correct in 1 week when taking a huge step up in class. -Stafford is well on his way and thrives when confident(I'm projecting a Brady Quinn career path for this kid. Probably means a Heisman &/or a national title). Just like last week, I am not hesitating at the fact that it appears sharp money is against UGA... they'll learn. This line came up as -3.5, but since I was able to buy it down to -3 for the low price of -120, I bought it to -3. Don't expect to need it, but it was the right play. UGA(-3,-120) 35 So. Car. 23[2$]...the early list of potential 2nd half candidates looks like this: UGA, WVU, FL, Oh. St. & Hawaii.
9/06/2007
2nd Half Colts/Saints Over 24 (-125)
If you liked it @ 52, you have to jump on the total of 44. I never said they would break the points up evenly. Just to cancel the original game bet, not trying to win unless they explode to get over original 52 total. Colts/Saints 2H over 24(-125) [1$]
9/05/2007
Rutgers over Navy
The line opened @ -12.5 and quickly raced to -17, even showing @ -19 @ one major book. I usually don't like to chase a number up, especially not this much, but this line maker appears to have made a mistake. Navy leads the nation in rushing year after year, but against a relatively soft schedule. I'm not drinking the NJ Kool-Aid, quite the contrary, I'm pretty negative on Rutgers relative to most, but this is a good team. The offense is balanced enough, but if need be, they can just ride Ray Rice all day against Navy and win big (Navy returns only 3 defensive starters and just gave up 19 points to lowly Temple). Rutgers is very strong on D as well, and while Navy usually confuses opponents, Rutgers held them to just over 2 ypc last season(Navy starting QB did get injured in 1st half). I expect Rutgers to take an early lead at home, then it's all over since Navy can't pass it's way back into the game. RU (-16) 38 Navy 10 [1$]
By Request...
from my one loyal reader "Stuck in India", I will put something out on the opener. People see 52 as an O/U line and immediately think it's too high. Not in this case where both offenses figure to dominate the other defense. IND 41 NO 28 over 52 [1$]
9/04/2007
Tease Me!
You ever curse out the odds makers, or just sit in awe when a game comes out right on top of the line, give or take a point? Here is your chance to embrace the odds maker, tip your hat to his prowess, and win money anyway. In my review of last week's games, 2 of the upcoming games I mentioned were Neb/WF and Oreg/Mich. I said Nebraska would struggle in a look ahead game and Michigan would bounce back to win vs. Oregon. When I said this, I was expecting Neb -10+ & Mich -3 or -4 to be the lines. Well the odds-makers nailed these 2 lines, so if you can't beat them, join them. These are each a one-game, two-team teaser(as discussed in the Tip Corner). Neither game is dependent on the outcome of the other. Mich 33 Oreg 27(Mich-1.5/Oreg. +13.5) [1$], Neb 27 WF 20(Neb -1.5/WF +13.5) [1$]. Both of these came up even money bets w/ my book and will be logged as such.
So. Fl. +7 over Auburn
This is simply the bookmakers playing the name game with you. Remove the names and analyze this game and you might call it a PK, only because Auburn is at home. Auburn's offense is anemic, Cox is not that good(I feel for him with his illness, but I have to call it like it is and I LOVE Lefty QBs). On the other side Grothe is everything you want out of a QB that only has the talent to top out at this level, and his team believes in him. This team really is amongst the elite in the Big East, and could make a Rutgers like run this season. So. Fl. carries a few short trends in its favor(I prefer short trends in CFB) while Auburn has shown an inability to cover at home, vs. quality opponents, as a favorite, on grass, while wearing shoelaces... in every spot imaginable. Add in a sub-par opener for So. Fl. to juice this line up, and the sharps on the dog's side for more ammo. These are ships passing in the night, next week So. Fl. will be ranked, Auburn will be out, or holding on for dear life. So. Fl.(+7) 23 Aub. 14 [1$]
9/03/2007
Chargers over Bears
Put aside the recent regression of Super Bowl losers in this one, there is plenty else to look at here. The Bears were extremely reliant on turnovers last year getting multiple TOs in all but 2 victories. Add in the 9 D/ST TDs scored and you have a team very reliant on its defense for points. Losses along the DL are bigger than many are letting on, no one on the team has faith in Rex (they blame him for the SB loss) and Cedric Benson has not proven capable of shouldering the load. CHI is a bad road dog as well. On the other side you have a team that covets the football (only 11 TOs last season), the best player in the game in LT, a QB going in the right direction and a stout D. If this line were 3-4 points(like the public apparently believes it should be), I would pause, but with an open at -5 and a quick jump to -6, I feel affirmed in my analysis, this is a great matchup for SD and a bad one for CHI. SD(-6) 27 CHI 13 [2$]
9/02/2007
NFL---ACT IMMEDIATELY!!!
I had some time to do enough preliminary analysis on these 2 games that I believe I would be doing readers a disservice by not getting these out before lines moved. PHIL has GBs number in the Andy Reid era, using his knowledge of Brett Favre to hold the Pack to 17 points or less in each of the last 6 games. The only explanation I can come up with for the -3(EV) line is a romantic belief in Favre and the Packers at home. Please check some of the trends on this ( Packers are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games on Grass, 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 home games), coupled with (Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and Reid is one of the best in the league[along w/ DC Jim Johnson] with time to prepare) and you have the makings of a one-sided affair. Johnson feasts on erratic QBs, and that assessment of Favre these days is going easy on him. Bring Donovan McNabb's chip on his shoulder into the mix and his well documented ability to dominate when the chips are NOT down, and this line reeks of mis-priced by several points. PHIL(-3 EV) 31 GB 13 [3$] ... For the second game, I just plain feel insulted. Trying to think like the bookmakers is difficult in this one. Are they truly giving Ben Roethlisberger's '06 a full weighting and thinking he is bound to turn the ball over at a similar rate? If anything, expect the inverse. Do they truly believe a veteran team loses its way when its coach retires? PITT is 6-0-1 in the last 7 versus CLE, with the push coming last year when Big Ben threw 3 INTs and still won 24-20 in CLE. PITT (-4.5) 37 CLE 10 [3$].
Better/Worse Than Expected
Must start every season with one of these, the lines start talking to you: BETTER- HOU(by a lot), MINN(ball control & good D), JAX(addition by subtraction), PITT(returns to NFL elite), OAK(good D, enough weapons on O to win a few), SF(trendy, but talent is there). WORSE- CHI(lost a lot on D, O needs D to set the table), ATL(worst team in NFL, college coach), NYJ(not sneaking up on anyone), NO(Ditto NYJ, add in bad D, can't outscore a 1st place schedule all season), CAR(aging, living on reputation, Delhomme is bad), KC(all stats call for LJ demise, then what do they do?), NYG(loss of Barber is enormous, D keeps getting worse), DET(if Kitna was so good, he wouldn't be there), NE(big early season losses on D, will take time for O to mesh, elite, but nowhere near best right now).
Way Off NFL Lines Bound To Move
PHIL-3 GB (will be closer to -7 than -3 by kickoff), PITT-4 CLE (will be closer to -8 than -4 by kickoff), STL Pk CAR (will be St. L. -3 by kickoff, CAR is not that good, living on its name), NE -6 NYJ (I expect a regression from NYG, nonetheless, with the losses of Harrison & Seymour along with a likely lack of continuity on offense from NE, this should be a FG game), SD -5 CHI(another regression team in CHI, lost a lot, will not be a close game).
What We Learned
Notes from the 1st weekend: I am 3-0 in games involving ranked opponents (FSU/Clemson still pending) while in a small sample set, I chalk this up to 2 factors, first the greater availability of good info, and more so, the more consistent approach of these teams. I mentioned how much I dislike picking bad teams in my Duke write-up, then go and pick Duke, EMU and the Wash./Cuse game to name a few. I went 3-2 in 2nd half picks (this includes the WVU pick that did not count towards my record since I did not have access to a computer in a timely enough manner to log it, but it did move me, the only person with any "skin in the game" so far, to positive territory for the week, however slight). 2nd half bets are good in college for several reasons: -you have a half of info to use in your analysis -good college coaches command the attention of their team and can give a meaningful "pep talk" at the half (I don't think this works in the NFL -there is a talent discrepancy in a lot of college games, and more often than not, the cream does rise to the top -books often have their hands tied as to what the 2nd half spread can be based on its relation to the overall game spread -1st half turnovers have a way of changing the score to distort what really happened in the 1st half, sometimes allowing you to get on the better team at a lower price just because they were a little sloppy with the ball -hedge opportunities exist to get you out of bad game picks (see EMU/Pitt yesterday), even with a chance to win money. As I stated a few times, you are only looking to pick "sleeping giants" with 2nd half bets, or picks that reverse you out of bad bets if it can be done so with no more risk than the vig... As for some CFB notes: -Expect Michigan to bounce back in a big way against Oregon. Everyone is focusing on how poorly Michigan played, but I watched that game and App. St. is a good team that executes well with very good athletes at the skill positions (Dexter Jackson, WR will be a solid, if not outstanding, NFL player). They are also champions at their level, winners find ways to win, don't discount that. -ND, not so good. Don't expect them to bounce back anytime soon, it will take a few weeks. -WVU is very explosive, but match them against a good coach with solid talent, and they can be beaten. The 3-3-5 defense is a gimmick that a physical team will exploit, and Pat White, for all his talents, is not much of a passer. The team that forces WVU to pass beats them. -Expect a let down this week from Nebraska @ WF prior to the USC showdown. It is only natural after the strong opening performance to start envisioning the glory of a victory versus the #1 team. If Skinner (separated shoulder) doesn't play for WF, all the more reason. Probably best to avoid. -Georgia is for real on all sides of the ball & Stafford is a future star. Any SEC schedule is a bear, but only having Tennessee on the road makes them the inside choice to face LSU for the SEC title game, and possibly take LSU down. Next week's game with So. Car. will be a classic, but as UF proved last year, just survive and advance in the SEC and you can beat anyone in the country. -Excess emotional baggage aside, Sean Glennon (VT) is not taking his team very far. He just takes too long to make decisions, and is not athletic enough, nor does he have a strong enough arm to afford this flaw of holding onto the ball. Branden Ore is not tough enough to carry the load either. Start to treat VT like a 15-25th ranked team, not a top 10 so you don't get burned by them. -A repeat from Thursday Night, LSU, while stout on D, lacks the big play potential that elite college teams always have. I prefer Georgia to them right now. -Most other games gave us little to work with, don't buy into 60-point drubbings, or top teams like USC that didn't have impressive wins... Expect a lighter slate of CFB picks from me this upcoming week with some opportunistic 2nd half plays. NFL is up and will get a lot more of my attention. I love FSU Monday, get on it!
9/01/2007
Another 2nd Half Pick
I'm going to pluck So. Car from our 2ndhalf list -12.5. I hit on WVU (-14) 2nd half earlier but wasn't able to log it, so it will not go towards my record. I will get into what I look for on 2nd half picks next week as it is a strategy I love for CFB.
More 2nd Half Picks
NC St. is getting thumped by CFU at home, at the half. Looked like a good value @ -5.5 (1$). Didn't like how EMU/Pitt game is playing out, so reversed out at the half w/ Pitt -8 (1$). If the game lands on Pitt -19 or -20, I get a push and a win, otherwise I just pay the 0.1$ vig, a small price for what looks like a loser.
2nd Half Wager
Va. Tech looks like a good play @ 13.5 for the 2nd half. The emotion got the better of VT early leading to a couple of turnovers, but the tide has turned a little and the 3 QB rotation of ECU is starting to get stale.
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