What We Learned

Notes from the 1st weekend: I am 3-0 in games involving ranked opponents (FSU/Clemson still pending) while in a small sample set, I chalk this up to 2 factors, first the greater availability of good info, and more so, the more consistent approach of these teams. I mentioned how much I dislike picking bad teams in my Duke write-up, then go and pick Duke, EMU and the Wash./Cuse game to name a few. I went 3-2 in 2nd half picks (this includes the WVU pick that did not count towards my record since I did not have access to a computer in a timely enough manner to log it, but it did move me, the only person with any "skin in the game" so far, to positive territory for the week, however slight). 2nd half bets are good in college for several reasons: -you have a half of info to use in your analysis -good college coaches command the attention of their team and can give a meaningful "pep talk" at the half (I don't think this works in the NFL -there is a talent discrepancy in a lot of college games, and more often than not, the cream does rise to the top -books often have their hands tied as to what the 2nd half spread can be based on its relation to the overall game spread -1st half turnovers have a way of changing the score to distort what really happened in the 1st half, sometimes allowing you to get on the better team at a lower price just because they were a little sloppy with the ball -hedge opportunities exist to get you out of bad game picks (see EMU/Pitt yesterday), even with a chance to win money. As I stated a few times, you are only looking to pick "sleeping giants" with 2nd half bets, or picks that reverse you out of bad bets if it can be done so with no more risk than the vig... As for some CFB notes: -Expect Michigan to bounce back in a big way against Oregon. Everyone is focusing on how poorly Michigan played, but I watched that game and App. St. is a good team that executes well with very good athletes at the skill positions (Dexter Jackson, WR will be a solid, if not outstanding, NFL player). They are also champions at their level, winners find ways to win, don't discount that. -ND, not so good. Don't expect them to bounce back anytime soon, it will take a few weeks. -WVU is very explosive, but match them against a good coach with solid talent, and they can be beaten. The 3-3-5 defense is a gimmick that a physical team will exploit, and Pat White, for all his talents, is not much of a passer. The team that forces WVU to pass beats them. -Expect a let down this week from Nebraska @ WF prior to the USC showdown. It is only natural after the strong opening performance to start envisioning the glory of a victory versus the #1 team. If Skinner (separated shoulder) doesn't play for WF, all the more reason. Probably best to avoid. -Georgia is for real on all sides of the ball & Stafford is a future star. Any SEC schedule is a bear, but only having Tennessee on the road makes them the inside choice to face LSU for the SEC title game, and possibly take LSU down. Next week's game with So. Car. will be a classic, but as UF proved last year, just survive and advance in the SEC and you can beat anyone in the country. -Excess emotional baggage aside, Sean Glennon (VT) is not taking his team very far. He just takes too long to make decisions, and is not athletic enough, nor does he have a strong enough arm to afford this flaw of holding onto the ball. Branden Ore is not tough enough to carry the load either. Start to treat VT like a 15-25th ranked team, not a top 10 so you don't get burned by them. -A repeat from Thursday Night, LSU, while stout on D, lacks the big play potential that elite college teams always have. I prefer Georgia to them right now. -Most other games gave us little to work with, don't buy into 60-point drubbings, or top teams like USC that didn't have impressive wins... Expect a lighter slate of CFB picks from me this upcoming week with some opportunistic 2nd half plays. NFL is up and will get a lot more of my attention. I love FSU Monday, get on it!