9/21/2007
1 CFB game, 1 NFL game
Everyone loves LSU, and the numbers suggest you should. Going into this week's game with So. Car., there are several points that make me want to buck the trend. I don't consider LSU battle tested yet as the team that was supposed to do this, VT, really is not that good. Last week, against an inferior opponent, HC Les Miles decided to start Ryan Perrilloux and REST senior "team leader" and starter Matt Flynn. Perrilloux responded with huge output as expected, but also enlightened a disturbing trend, while better at executing the offense, Flynn stifles the big play for LSU with his efficiency, the big plays to date have all come with Perrilloux under center. I don't know that a QB controversy is brewing, but this fact may come front and center this Saturday as So. Car. has been very successful at stopping the pass this season. If this one is competitive in the 2nd quarter, Miles may find himself in a bind when he goes to Perrilloux to ignite the offense. In general, I do not think much of Miles as a tactician, while his counterpart The Ol' Ball Coach is just that, a tactician. So. Car., despite his off field transgressions, is behind its leader Blake Mitchell who has a Jim McMahon, just get it done and inspire the team quality that works for this team. So. Car. is starting to look a lot like last year's Florida team that was able to manage its emotions in a tough SEC and peak when it needed to for big games. So. Car. also has a distinct advantage in the kicking game that seems more likely to be a factor than an 18-point spread. If you followed me on USF 2-weeks ago and UK last week when I called for outright wins, follow me here. Even if I'm only partly right, you have a big cushion with the spread. So. Car. (+18) 23 LSU 20 [1$]... Back to the theme of the week with an additional NFL pick, yes NE is very good, but NE is especially good at rising to the most important occassions (i.e. vs. SD after CameraGate), but usually plays it close to the vest with softer match-ups, trying to win without having to put anything on tape for the rest of the league. I expect that type of game in this division match-up. NE 27 BUF (+17) 17 [1$].
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