NFL Picks

Let me start by introducing an new type of wager I have been using with great success over the past few seasons, the money line(ML) parlay. Parlays, unto themselves are a bad bet, but I have found using the ML in a parlay to wager on teams you were very confident would win, but were not comfortable with the point spread allows you to get on the closest thing to a "sure thing" on one, or multiple parts of a wager, in essence getting leverage on another part of your wager. I will use this week's wager as an example. IND ML/NO ML/ PHI ML(1.2$ to win 2.03$). In their own right, IND & PHI are -300, NO is -195, all pretty heavy odds to lay to wager on each individual team, all requiring a lot of money at risk to make any kind of profit. If you were to wager 1$ on each team, and lose one game, you are not profiting that week, if you lose 2 or 3 games, you have wiped out any success you may have had elsewhere and are looking at a negative week. However putting these teams into a parlay dramatically reduces your downside(much more important than increasing upside), and a funny thing happens in probability with 3 out of 4 shots, they come out with much greater frequency than 3 out of 4. In this case, IND won 7 straight against TEN before TEN shocked them last season, is it likely TEN will win 2 straight? Probably not. Throw out 2005(pretty easy for PHI fans) and PHI won 6 straight vs. WASH, is coming home on Monday night, and is coming off a loss, a pretty good spot to expect a PHI win. That leaves us with NO with extra rest, coming off an embarrassing loss, going to TB face an already banged up TB team that probably isn't very good anyway. But now, we're not laying 2 to 1, we're getting about 1.7 to 1. Not guaranteed, but we are protecting our downside and giving ourselves a great chance to hit all 3 picks. Furthermore, if the 1st 2 picks hit, we have artificially created a 7 point middle for the PHI game where we can take all risk off the table(or some) and relax, and not worry if our beloved Iggles win by a TD or more... NYJ & BAL both likely to have new QBs under center, arguably, NYJ opens up its vertical passing game with its move to the #2 QB, while no positives can ever be drawn from a move to K.Boller at QB. This is just too many points for defensive minded teams BAL 23 NYJ(+11) 20 [1$]... JAX is a defense first team that runs the ball very well and well at home. ATL is just plain awful and should be testing the outer bounds of odds makers imaginations with 2 TD+ spreads versus IND & @NO later this season. JAX(-10) 27 ATL 6 [1$]... This is difficult to explain with past performance, but be patient, HOU is better than CAR. Going on the road to win is going to be a difficult new experience for HOU to conquer, but this is a confident, playoff contending AFC team facing an NFC team that may back into the playoffs because no one steps up to claim the spots. D.Robinson won't stop S.Smith, but will contain him and HC G.Kubiak will manage this to a FG game. CAR 24 HOU(+7) 23 [1$]... MIN has won 10 straight against DET, DET was impressive on offense vs. OAK, but also tends to be its own worst enemy and MIN has the defense to stop the M.Martz show causing a combined 10 TOs last season allowing a combined 13 yds. rushing(no, a digit is not missing). Expect the same here MIN(+3) 20 DET 16 [1$]...I think you knew this next pick was coming after my rant earlier this week, but NE has to lose some swagger after being exposed for cheating, the injured players on D will be too much to overcome against the SD offense, and the game just means more to SD after the post-game taunting on its field by NE players. SD(+4) 31 NE 20 [1$].