NFL Picks

PHI/NYG UN 42 [5$]... PIT +10.5 NE [5$]... CLE -3 NYJ [5$].

Monday Night

NE moved down to -19 due to windy conditions, but I successfully QB'd my touch football team yesterday to a league championship through a windy, wintry mix, so I think Brady will manage against a pretty exploitable pass D. You can hold out for the line to continue to move, but anything short of getting to -17 is not likely to be helpful, but -20 is close and perilous... NE(-19)38 BAL 10 [5$].

Sunday Night

PIT -7 CIN [5$]... PIT/CIN over 40 [5$].

NFL Picks

PHI -3 SEA [5$]... JAX +7(-120) IND [5$]... CLE +1 AZ [5$].

CFB Championship Saturday

Historically one of the most unpredictable weekends of the season as some team gets inspired and steals glory from a team we all thought was a lock... Problem is, no team is a lock, I would even challenge you to say any team is significantly better than any other, outside of LSU/TENN(LSU just might be overrated and I don't know what to make of Perrilloux instead of Flynn. I'm going to avoid this one, I hope this is the "upset")... MAC Championships always seem to be hotly contested. After stumbling out of the gate, M-OH picked it up and had more competitive showings out of conference. Maybe I just don't want to root against my wife's alma mater in front of her... M-OH(+3)34 CMU 31 [5$]... ACC game has revenge written all over it and since BC has lost its undefeated mojo, revenge will be had by the better team... VT(-4.5)31 BC 14 [5$]... A lot of talk about USC being the best team in the country again, and I'm not buying it. This is a throw out the records battle, expect UCLA to compete... USC 27 UCLA(+19.5)19 [5$]... ASU seems to think they have something to play for. AZ, despite what you saw on ESPN vs ORE is not that good and cannot score with ASU... ASU(-7)38 AZ 20 [5$]... And the big one. We all know turnovers are the great equalizer, and MIZZ victimized itself with 4 last time. OK falls in the category of teams that lost mojo after losing as well, and TTU really put it on them a couple of weeks ago. I will take the experience of Chase Daniel over the promise of Sam Bradford as well. As always, the BCS dodges the final bullet and gets to claim the right teams are in the Championship Game and we go another off-season without any real discussion for a playoff... MIZZ(+3)34 OK 23 [5$]... Late night, the final piece falls in place as Ty Willingham becomes the savior for the BCA & BCS all in one motion... Wash(+13.5)33 HAW 30 [5$].

NFC "Game of the Year"

It pains me to have to say that, but it is obviously true. Throw out the Favre 0-8 record at Texas Stadium, different teams, it's just not relevant. DAL is the better team in this match-up because of a balanced offense, add in home field advantage, and I think we have our winner. Problem is the spread seams very accurate. I managed to get some in early in the week at 6.5, but since that line is not offered now, I am going to suggest you pay for it if you must wager on this game(like I MUST wager on this game)... DAL(-6.5,-120)34 GB 27 [3$].

Monday Night 2nd Half

This weather is ridiculous, but I can't see losing PIT -7, 2H... PIT(-7,2H,EV) over MIA [10$].

Monday Night Reminder

Are you f-ing kidding me on the phantom foul call against Nova with 0.4 secs. left? What is it with Nova getting the shaft against teams from NC(UNC in 2006 tourney, phantom walk call on Allan Ray)? Of course the MIN pick hits when I don't play it. At least NYG got pinned with a loss making the 2nd half NFC WC race interesting, even though whomever gets in sucks anyway... Just a reminder on the PIT pick for tonight... Coming off a loss, home on Monday night, against a rookie QB, after seeing NE struggle last night with a big point spread, and, oh yeah, RICKY WILLIAMS who has not played in the NFL in over 2 years, coming off a week of practice is the starting RB! Do you think MIA wants to lock up the #1 pick in the draft?... PIT(-16) 38 MIA 3 [5$](would put it in for 50$ just to wipe out my deficit, but that is kind of against the rules.

My Weekend... and NFL picks

I went to a wedding Friday night, got a few drinks in me and started betting obscene amounts on every game on the slate, digging a hole that was larger than what I am down for the season. Yesterday, while only putting in a few picks, I got my shovel and got to a 4-digit positive for the week by being on fire. I guess I'm not good at sharing, my apologies for not taking you along for the ride, I was 7-1-1, the push coming in the 1st half of GEO/GT when the GEO kicker missed an XP to cost me the win. That's right, I gave out 2 losers, but only had one on my own, I backed off of KAN, but did capitalize on what wound up being an easy 2nd half over. As a result of a Saturday that felt like a double-shift as a gravedigger, I am taking it easy today, putting in the prevent defense to preserve my good work, and taking a big swing myself... TEN ML/NO ML/JAX ML [3.5$/9.98$]... and one from the heart... PHI +24/Nova -0.5(bought 2.5 points) [3$/6.22$]... just in case I'm really on fire, I'm going to mention that while NYG has good numbers against the run, the only effective running game faced this year is DAL. I keep hearing how this game is a walkover for NYG, but don't be shocked if MIN runs all over NYG today and keeps it close, if not sneaks by for the win. No pick in there though, like I said, I'm in prevent today.

2nd Half

MIA-FL appears to have given up. Ryan will try to boost his lost Heisman hopes... BC -6.5,2H over MIA [5$].

Saturday CFB

VT -4 over UVA [4$]... KAN PK over MIZZ [3$]... So. Car. +3 over CLEM [4$]... more to follow.

Friday Picks

I have always found this to be one of the toughest days of the year to pick CFB games. The games are usually rivalries, and with Thanksgiving cutting in, you just don't know what kind of prep teams were able to put in for the game. Of course, by my record, you can see I have found many days difficult to pick this season, so I'm going to give it a shot anyway... LSU, like an aging boxer, has lost its knockout punch. Earlier in the season, LSU just dismembered opponents, but as the season has progressed, perhaps aware of the ultimate goal, has become a boxer that chooses to not put himself in danger, and try to out-point his opponents. I don't love having to run to attack LSU, it just has not worked much, but ARK runs like no one else, so they should have some success... LSU 28 ARK(+13) 20 [4$]... TAM has given up. I don't even think they like Franchione enough to try one more time for him. TEX has a 10 win season, a major bowl and a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game if OK stumbles... TEX(-6)49 TAM 14 [5$]... I am withholding judgement on a big game tonight between BSU & HAW. All angles suggest a BSU win to spoil the undefeated HAW season, but a long trip to the islands on a short week over Thanksgiving is a lot to overcome, and BSU could not have possibly done enough prep on a tricky offense to feel good about stopping HAW. I am going to continue to look at this one, but for now it is a pass... CBB... L'ville is truly one of the elite CBB teams right now and appears to be lacking a little respect in Vegas. After drumming UNLV and this Vegas tourney, that should change... L'ville(-6) over BYU [3$].

Turkey Day Picks

Big wiseguy selection that makes sense. DET just lost at home last week, season is on the line today... DET(+3.5)24 GB 21 [4$]... My favorite HOPEFUL pick is DAL 2nd half as they have been amazing in 2nd halves so far, but I can't put that up until I get a line and won't have computer access, so you will have to do it on your own. DAL will score points for sure, the OV is well in reach... DAL45 NYJ17 O47.5 [2$]... IND is the best bet of the week at any line that has ever been put on an NFL game... IND(-12) 41 ATL 0 [5$]... CFB... USC heads into ASU to complete the fall to earth for ASU. Would have happened last week if UCLA wasn't on its 6th string QB. His name is Oscar Rasshan and an insider told me he will also be the villain in this upcoming season of 24... USC(-3) 33 ASU 23 [3$].

Worst week ever!

Between Saturday and Sunday, I went 2-12 on posted picks. I felt like John Anthony in Two for the Money when he got cold. Fortunately, no one is taking my advice, therefore, I don't have to worry about anyone taking a piss in my face. It got to the point where, even when I had computer access, I didn't post additional picks that I was making. So what happened?... Of course I went on a tear and had a profit for the week in the low 4-figure range in my "personal account". Un-posted picks included some college hoops(more on that later), an obvious Eagles 2nd half pick(after 3 first half INTs and arguably a QB upgrade when McNabb went down) and a Pats over parlay(I don't recommend parlays, but I was feeling it on this "no post and win" wave I was on). A couple of years ago, I swore off of being superstitious when I accidentally broke a mirror, then decided to break 2 more to I made it so overwhelming, I would have to kill myself or give up on being superstitious... I chose the latter. I am here to report no noticeable changes in luck after the mirrors, but a liberating feeling you can only get from things like a divorce and the witness protection program. Point of telling the story, I know not posting had no impact on my success, but I was motivated to inaction, in this case not posting because it was easier that way. I make a great argument against organized religion in this vein if you ever want to hear it... Onto tonight's game, TEN @ DEN... TEN is confident and finding ways to win, DEN is a little unsure and losing many more than it wins after starting the season as a team that was finding ways to win. Talent is close to even, but TEN has an outstanding defense while DEN has a lot of exploitable holes. Jeff Fisher and Norm Chow possess the unique ability in coaching circles of checking their egos and just doing what will put them in the best position to win. In this case, that's run the ball, then run it some more, which is what TEN likes to do anyway. Furthermore, DEN has proven susceptible to the QB run versus the more mobile QBs faced(Garrard, Big Ben and Losman all were effective with scrambles). VY is much more capable than the names on that list and it is in the gameplan to run him. Add in VY fits the profile of a Monday Night spotlight star, and I think we have a decision... TEN(EV)23 DEN 14 [4$](keep your +1, I'll take even money on the loss here... Now for that "back to CBB", I obviously love college hoops as a Nova guy, and think I actually do better historically betting CBB, but I am not ready to commit to posting frequently this season, but I will put up some picks when motivated starting tonight... I, like most hetero males that did not attend Duke, HATE DUKE! Tonight they face a bad Princeton team that is +22, believe it or not, due to name recognition. Duke loves rolling it up on teams and will do so tonight... DUKE(-22) over Princeton [3$].

2nd Half

Normally I love a good team trailing at the half, however with the starting QB out, the backup looking clueless and the defense unable to get off the field, I can't. Then I see a line that is normally 7-10 points coming in at -3,-120 and I know my eyes did not deceive me. TTU will finish off OU in convincing fashion... TTU (+3,EV,2H) over OU [4$]. Just added another [2$] @ +3.5,EV,2H.

Weekend Selections

Tough one last night on ORE, if you watched the game, ORE was dominant on offense with Dixon in, with Leaf, not so much... CFB... Once over-achieving teams get the 1st chink in their armour, they typically begin to reel(see So. Fl., BC, UK to name a few). I would say this especially applies to a team that has been outgained in it's last 5 games(winning the 1st 4) by an average of over 100 yards. UCONN 27 CUSE(+19) 20 [2$]... WVU OWNS CIN and is smelling an opportunity to win a championship. Too much offense and defense from WVU... WVU(-6.5)38 CIN 17 [3$]... A trap game if there ever was one, ISU can score enough to bring a huge spread into play... KU 41 ISU(+26.5) 24 [2$]... An elite team that had it and lost is much more dangerous and thorough than one that never had it... LSU(-19.5)40 Miss 0 [3$]... Mich saw the big picture last week and rested some stars and took a loss in the process, knowing this week was the big one. OSU applies to the overachiever statement above... MICH(+4) 34 OSU 28 [2$]... What would this line be if BC were still undefeated? BC has seen its mortality, but also plays solid against the run which comprises the CLEM O... BC(+8)24 CLEM 23 [3$]... NFL... SD looked really bad in a win Sunday night, but JAX has been shaky and turns to a rusty Garrard at QB... SD(+3)27 JAX 21 [2$]... PIT has stepped it up to put themselves amongst the elite in the NFL while NYJ has many holes...PIT(-9.5)34 NYJ 13 [2$]... Only one opportunity this week to get an AFC team at home against a bad NFC team. AZ will call it a victory if they find the stadium... CIN(-3)34 AZ 13 [2$]... Sucking in the 2nd half of the season is a difficult trend to prove, but NYG have done their best the past few seasons. More importantly, DET is a different team at home(4-0, 3-0-1 ATS) and should not get points from a team in the same class... DET(+2.5)24 NYG 20 [3$]... I'm sorry, I'm back to this. Feel free to ignore this pick, but Jim Johnson versus a rookie QB is a mismatch and I dread to say, PHI still has some life left... PHI(-10)51 MIA 3 [3$]... Teams heading in different directions, STL has its stars back in the line-up, SF has Dilfer back under center. Try to convince me SF is not the worst team in the NFL right now... STL(-3)30 SF 10 [2$]... As always, upsizes and 2nd half plays are possible and likely.

Thursday Night

I was planning on staying away from a game wager in the ORE/AZ game, but the line has moved significantly and has prompted me to get involved. Some important facts: -Being ranked #2 in the country does not qualify as a valid trend/reason why you should lose -Losing to mediocre teams at home IS a valid trend/reason to pick against a team -A short week is a TERRIBLE thing to have when preparing for a "gimmicky" offense -REVENGE, especially when the better team is seeking the revenge is a valid trend/reason to wager on. All of these factors weigh prominently in this game tonight, more so than what was keeping me away from the game which was a national TV spot for a team that hasn't had one in awhile, particularly at home. I expect some resistance from AZ early, but ORE should take care of business handily... ORE(-10)42 AZ 20 [3$].

Monday Night 2nd Half

It will be surprising if SF scores... SEA(-4,2H) over SF [3$].

Monday Night

Some people like me either have to watch NFL football just because it's on, or maybe you have a fantasy football interest, or maybe you are actually a fan of one of these teams. This short list pretty much summarizes the reasons to watch this miserable game tonight. I am here to add another reason to the list... I believe there is a clear side to favor from a wagering standpoint. On top of not being able to find the end zone with a map, and the hysteria a home crowd like SEA can whip itself up into for a Monday night game, the father of SF Coach Mike Nolan passed away this week, surely diminishing the preparation he was able to put into the game. As poorly as SEA has played in recent weeks, they still stand atop the NFC West, the rain plays to their favor, and as luck would have it, their injured RB creates an upgrade while a still gimpy Gore will be hesitant at best on a wet field with a bad ankle. Not quite what we had last Monday, but expect a comfortable win for SEA... SEA(-9) 31 SF 10 [5$].

2nd Half

SD has done nothing on offense, IND started to get it going...IND -7,2H over SD [5$].

Added NFL Game & Upsize

NO line came down...NO(-10,-120) over STL[1$]... CLE is on a 4 game Over trend which tends to inflate the O/U. Last 5 head-to-head match-ups Over is 4-0-1, with all lines between 32.5-36.5. CLE has an offense now, but this will be a traditional, hard fought division matchup...PIT 24 CLE 17, UN 47 [2$].

2nd Half

Miami can cover -4 in the 2nd half of the last game in The Orange Bowl, right? Mia(-4,2H) over UVA [2$].

Lots of smaller picks

This week doesn't present many high profile games to get into, but there are a lot of lines that look suspect. I am going to increase number of picks, reduce size this week... CFB... Rutgers beats up on inferior competition... RU(-20)38 Army 7 [3$]... Temple has hung w/ teams, PSU doesn't have the knockout punch... PSU 30 TU(+24.5) 17 [2$]... UK is still in the hunt for a major bowl and who even knows if they can still win the SEC East, Vandy isn't that good... UK(-3.5)34 Vandy 20 [2$]... ND getting points from an academy just looked funny, expect a bounce back...ND(+3.5) 28 AF 20 [2$]... UGA definitely can win the SEC East, Auburn is overrated... UGA(-2) 23 AUB 16 [2$]... Illinois is sneaky good and shouldn't get 15 from anyone in the Big 10... OSU 30 ILL(+15) 24 [2$]... KU hasn't beaten a team with a winning record and looks like the latest unbeaten to fall... OK St.(+6)37 KU 33 [3$]...NFL... BUF is starting to look pretty good, MIA continues to look really bad... BUF(-3)27 MIA 13 [3$]... NO is on a roll and STL just wants the pain to stop... NO(-11.5)35 STL 14 [2$]... Some supermodel named Brooks is likely to play QB for MIN, I doubt she will be better than that chick Kelly or that freaky bitch Tarvaris. GB is solid against the run, I'm expecting especially against people named Adrian... GB(-6)27 MIN 14 [2$].

2nd Half

WVU (-7,-125) over L'ville [2$].

Thursday Night

So L'ville is going to WVU and is in the press talking about how much they want to win... I didn't really expect that since L'ville appears to have mailed it in. I'm going to be cautious and say that they will stick around in the game, at least early. The angle in this game, I believe, is the O/U, because 65 O/Us are reserved for teams that each score in the 30s, and there is only one team in this game that does that. Perhaps by design, L'ville has scored 24, 17 & 28 in their trailing 3 games, probably to protect a pretty shoddy defense. WVU has held up its end of the bargain by scoring a ton of points, but have mixed in a defense that has not allowed over 24 points this season and is on a stretch of allowing 3, 13, 14, 21, 7 & 14 in their trailing 6 games. If L'ville is able to keep it competitive, the score will be lower than expected. The ideal scenario has a tight game in the 1st half allowing us to circle back for WVU in the 2nd half as we have many times this season. WVU 34 L'ville 21 (U65)[3$].

Monday Night

Throw out everything you think you know about PIT and BAL. This is not a defensive battle anymore, at least not like it used to be. Forget about trends because PIT is a totally different team without Bill Cowher. BAL is 4-3 with wins versus NYJ, AZ, SF & STL, that is not very impressive. The defense isn't what it used to be and with both corners likely to miss the game, look out. PIT has opened it up on offense, giving more freedom to Big Ben, and he has grown into the role. Fast Willie has been extremely effective as a result. This offense has weapons everywhere. So, plan on catching the early train in to work tomorrow, because you will be able to go to bed early tonight... PIT(-9)34 BAL 13 [5$]... over 36 [3$].

2nd Half

NE -4,2H over IND [5$].

2nd Half

NO (Pk,-150,2H) over JAX [2$].

2nd Half

SD -3,-125, 2H over MIN v[2$].

3-team Parlay

TEN ML/ SD ML/PIT -6.5(buy 2.5 from -9) [2/4.06$].

UConn isn't that bad?

I have been posed this question by a reader, and due to the fact that I am having a pretty good week and I am awake an hour earlier than expected due to daylight savings, I will address it. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. WVU is the one-eyed man, that one eye being its offense. That makes UConn the only guy who can afford a seeing eye dog. So, yes, relative to the rest of the Big East, UConn is not as bad as I have made them out to be, however I think it is mostly a product of how poor the Big East is, now securely the worst major conference. On a positive note, RU has been officially welcomed back to the rank of mediocre program because it did not strike while the iron was hot, only getting somewhere between the 35th-50th best recruiting class after last season's cinderella run. Tickets to sit amongst the football challenged will soon be freely available again and state taxes to build new roads in the New Brunswick area can now be diverted to education, the world is getting back to its entropy state.

2nd Half

3 INTs, 9 penalties & a blocked FG & only trailing by 3 is a good spot to be in. LSU is moving the ball, Bama is not... LSU(-6,2H) over Bama [3$].

More Picks

Tex(-3,2H) over Ok.St. [2$]...3-team ML parlay...Ore/SD(NFL)/NE [2.2/304$]...Upsizes... Ore(-7) over ASU [4$ to 5$]...RU(+2) over UConn[3$ to 4$].

One More CFB Side & 2 Totals

UF will be merciless on Vandy today...UF(-14)45 Vandy 10 [2$]...Don't know who will win, but the Navy/ND "grudge match" will stay low... ND 23 Navy 21 (UN 57) [2$]... OSU will hold serve (so that Mich can be the team to knock them off, but again, scoring will be at a premium...OSU 20 Wisc 13 (UN 45) [2$].

CFB Pick

If not for awful officials' calls, UConn would have lost to a bad Louisville team and TEMPLE!!!! If not for missed FGs and red zone turnovers, So. Fl. would have won by 14 last week. The luck has to end somewhere... RU(+2)34 UConn 17 [3$].

Early Picks

Saw a few lines I like right now... CFB... ORE(-7) over ASU [5$]...NFL... NE(-4.5) over IND[5$]... TEN(-4) over CAR [4$]... JAX(+3.5) over NO [4$]...more to come later in the week.

Monday Night 2nd Half

Good value chase since it saves you the DEN -7 2nd half for the 1-point win. DEN(-3,@H,+110) over GB [3$].

Monday Night

So I traveled to a lame city, fought with my wife, did all of the work on my picks earlier in the week, and ended the weekend with a net +0.10$(2.10$ for the week if you include Thursday night). What a waste! ... Monday night matches an AFC team versus an NFC team. That type of match-up ended up 3-0 straight-up and ATS this week and has been the only nugget of wisdom to use this season in a difficult year(that I am starting to get the better of mind you). A -3 point spread from the home team suggests an even neutral field match-up, however a solid AFC team is probably 6-7 points better than a solid NFC team on a neutral field. This is that type of match-up and this line obliges us to go with the AFC team at a discount... DEN(-3)24 GB 14 [4$].

Upsize

USF(-4.5) over UConn [2$] added onto [3$] @ -5.

Road Warrior(s)

What a Saturday of CFB coming up as there are several matchups between ranked teams or with ranked teams versus teams that can knock them off... again. What we are going through in CFB is a statistical anomaly with top 10 teams getting knocked off by inferior teams. It is to the point where oddsmakers are now setting spreads to account for this, and that is where value comes out. This set of lines specifically addresses what is going on in CFB and like all statistical anomalies, things will normalize. In the meantime, I am going to take the bait and take the "better" teams either getting points or giving fewer than they deserve to... on the NFL front, I am doing the same, except I am going with one of the strongest trends in NFL wagering, going against the mighty Pats minus an obscene 16 points to a good Skins team(fair value on this line is a TD or more lower). So while you are on your couch, enjoying a great slate of football, I will be on the road in Nashville, watching my wife's alma mater Red(skins) Hawks against Vandy. Don't feel too bad for me though, I will be drinking like a college kid, looking @ Southern college girls... in my own road warrior mode, that is the theme of these picks... VT has beaten no one unless you think one-dimensional CLEM is good and might be the worst top 10 team ever. Add in a QB issue and BCs #1 rushing D... BC(+3) 23 VT 14 [3$]... UConn IS the worst ranked team ever and So. Fl. sees the big picture that it is still in position to get to a BCS bowl...So. Fl.(-5) 37 UConn 14 [3$]... USC and its elite D is getting points in the Pac-10...USC(+3) 30 Ore 19 [2$]... UGA is strong on the road, especially with an obscene 9 points...UGA(+9) 27 UF 24 [2$]... How much fun do you think it was to be in Columbia this week? UT is not very good, Bama was not a complete fluke... So. Car.(+3) 24 UT 17 [2$]... RU can't stop the run, WVU can run... WVU(-6.5) 38 RU 24 [2$]... I have no choice on this one, I won't be able to enjoy the game without a real rooting interest... M-OH(+14) 20 Vandy 14 [2$]...NFL... The Pats run HAS to come to an end at some point... NE33 WAS(+16) 24 [2$]... The NFC is bad, and CAR is bad amongst the bad... IND(-6.5) 30 CAR 10 [2$]... Don't let a win versus the Jets fool you, CIN is really bad too & PIT is angry... PIT(-3.5) 34 CIN 17 [2$]... I probably won't have access to a computer until Sunday afternoon, but keep an eye out for 2nd half plays, good teams, perhaps they turned the ball over in the 1st, you know what to look for.

I Want My Money Back!

Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese called the missed call I complained about in the L'ville/UConn game "terrible" and he has punished the referee who missed the call in some fashion. I will be going to my mailbox starting Wednesday to see if I got my check from the Big East to ease my pain. The joke of it is, I think the So. Fl./RU call is the one that needs fixing... I guess when the darling of the Big East, RU is involved, and the game got great ratings and gave the conference great exposure, it's OK for the refs to f-up the game. As long as we know the rules going forward...

Monday Night

My apologies again on not posting a pick but I once again was unable to get to a computer for my 2nd half DAL pick yesterday. Once again, it was a pretty obvious style pick. Unfortunately I am doing a bad job of making my blog an entirely accurate representation of my picks and it is making me look bad... Tonight we have the highly touted Colts and the suddenly highly touted Jags. I was listening to the radio yesterday and some idiot actually called them the 3rd best team in the league. Nonetheless, if talking about style, this is one of those I can't explain other than they play physical, but the Jags always give the Colts fits. I expect the same tonight, but I am not prepared to make a side selection in the game. My preference is for the under in this game, however, my selection is to middle the entire game, taking 12 points on each line to fit this competitive game into... remember, we really only have to be right twice since we're doing it on the same game... IND +9/JAX +15/O 33/ U 57 [2$].

NFL Picks

Just the picks for today...SF(+9) over NYG [2$]... WAS(-8) over AZ [2$]... DAL(-9) over MIN [2$]... NYJ(+6.5) over CIN [2$]... 3-team ML Par PHI/PIT/BOS(MLB) [2$/4.72$]...I hit on the 2nd half on LSU last night, but was at a friend's house and didn't want to look like a degenerate going on his computer to post the pick. It will not go on my record, but for ALL of you that follow me, I hope you knew that was right in my wheelhouse and you used it yourself.

Upsize

USC moved to -17 and I am adding 1$ at that level. USC -17 over ND [1$].

2nd Half

Looked like too many points in the OK 2nd half, but So. Car. turned the ball over 2 times and is at home. So. Car. (-7.5, 2H) over Vandy [3$].

Explaination Required

How did a Big East officials crew review a play in Thursday's So. Fl./RU game and call a brand new penalty for illegal forward lateral on the review taking a TD off the board for So. Fl., then another Big East crew miss a call in Friday's L'ville/UConn game on a fair catch signal, but was unable to look at the replay and recognize its missed call and correct it? Am I not talking about the same thing here? My thought was that a new penalty was not allowed to be called, much like they cannot go to the review to call a holding penalty they did not see live, but it was done in Thursday's game and not Friday's. The result is I lose 2 wagers where in each case the call went against me by enough to swing the result against me. CFB really needs to take a long look at itself, it is making a mockery of the 2007 season and I think it is already certain that the true champion of the nation cannot be crowned... we'll have to get them tomorrow.

Saturday CFB

Not much of interest this Saturday. I am looking for the 2 "best" teams to start putting something together and return to the top of the rankings. USC -17.5 versus ND is just a talent mismatch with the more talented team also more motivated. Look for USC to start its BCS charge. USC(-17.5)41 ND 6 [2$]... In spite of my bias in favor of lefty QBs, I find Brandon Cox repulsive. Against tough defenses he folds up like a lawn chair, LSU is tough and angry and will play like men playing against boys. LSU(-11)34 Aub 13 [2$]... I have several games on my 2nd half radar(WVU included) and may add a couple of games tomorrow, but all in all, this is a strange CFB season and this is a pivotal weekend, so I might just stick to my strongest picks, perhaps upsize them.

Last Night... & Tonight

So, as I said, I attended the So. Fl. @ RU game and have a few comments from the experience: -Schiano STOLE the game with a couple of gutsy fake kick calls. I said it had to be fluky, it was. -RU fans are some of the least knowledgeable I have ever come across, and I have Eagles season tickets. -I hate the rushing the field/court thing in general, but was in college once and understand the temptation. My issues with this particular rush are, first, I saw men old enough to be my father rush the field(pathetic), but second, and worse, RU fans missed the bigger picture here because if their team just took care of business when it had 10-point halftime leads against Cincy and MD, RU could have been the #2 team in the country going in to this game and this would not be a rush worthy event. Last night was more a time to lament what might have been than to celebrate. -On an additional note, I saw Erin Andrews up close a few times: -very attractive -a little awkward body-type, but still sexy -her love for sports is what puts her over, in another profession she likely wouldn't get noticed much -there was a 20-something blonde in the 6th row that should have been handed a mike and given EAs job on the spot. An RU grad I was with declared her EASILY the hottest girl ever to go to RU and I am sure he was right... Friday night is another one where I just can't figure out the line, but not so much that it needs to be steered clear of. L'ville is not as advertised preseason, but can certainly score. UConn basically took the rankings, turned them upside down, then started working its way down the list until it found someone it couldn't beat last week against UVA. That means UConn can beat teams ranked 85 and below essentially. L'ville will be inspired by last night's game knowing they control their own destiny in the Big East due to a strategic loss to a team that won't figure in any tie-breakers, 'Cuse. L'ville will lose to the better teams in the BE, but don't tell them yet. In a funny twist, L'ville actually seems more comfortable on the road this season(as disappointing teams often do) after holding the longest active home winning streak earlier this season. In the end, L'ville will score at a level UConn can't keep up with because UConn does not have the tools to exploit L'ville's poor pass defense. L'ville(-3) 45 UConn 31 [2$].

So. Fl. @ RU

The Count just scored some good seats for the game(will be incognito, please do not try to find me), and after more research and further reflection, I am upsizing this to a 5$ wager. So. Fl. (-2) over RU [5$].

Stop The Insanity!!!

I think most would agree this is the craziest CFB season in recent memory, if not ever. A high ranking is akin to a death sentence, usually administered immediately. It has gotten to the point that people assume high ranked teams not only will not cover, they will lose outright. It has swung in this direction all season, and now, at least this Thursday night, I believe it will swing back to normalcy as So. Fl. will hold serve and beat RU in NJ. As you can imagine, living in NJ, I am hearing it from all sides that RU will win this game, but I have news for everyone, this season's version of the Scarlet Knights really is not that good, I mean middle of the pack Big East, 30-50 rank nationally, probably closer to the 50 than the 30. RU has feasted on bad teams this season, but has struggled mightily against competent to good teams. While I do not consider So. Fl. elite, they are a legitimate top 10 team that does it the reliable way, playing tough defense and efficient offense. They are also doing it against much tougher competition than RU has faced. Problems RU faces this week include: -QB Mike Teel is not good to horrible with any sort of pressure, and So. Fl. is sure to get pressure -virtually everyone on the So. Fl. defense is as fast as Ray Rice, if not faster making a 30-90 day much more likely than a 25-150 day(if RU does not run effectively, RU has no chance) -RU's defense, when facing competent(not even good) offenses is almost a sure bet to give up in excess of 400 yards... That leaves RU with a reliance on turnovers to beat a good team, which is always possible, but due to the relative randomness of turnovers, is not a good bet. The game RU wins includes a +2 or better TO ratio, PLUS an error in the kicking game by So. Fl. I will give you the kicking game error from So. Fl., but do not see anything other than a fluke-ish game giving RU a substantial TO advantage, not when So. Fl. is the pressing defense and RU is passive on defense and mistake prone when pressured on offense. I expect the game to be competitive, but the insanity stops and the #2 team holds up finally. So. Fl.(-2) 24 RU 16[3$].

Monday Night Parlay

Not your typical Side & O/U Parlay though... we're going to pull in the amazing Colorado Rockies @ -179 to keep it rolling and just reduce our leverage to take NYG on the ML -230. Same strategy that was successful this weekend, just using baseball on one end. NYG are very Jekyll & Hyde, have been for awhile. Have lost to ATL with a green Matt Schaub making his 1st career start, even lost to Doug Johnson. Those were better overall ATL teams mind you, so I just think we can rule out the upset, but would like to lighten our load to take NYG, thus, insert the Rockies. Expect NYG by a TD, that's not comfortable enough for me to lay 4.5, this ML Par fills in nicely. NYG ML/ Col(MLB) ML [4.06$ to win 4.99$].

NFL Pick

SEA -5.5 over NO [2$]

NFL Picks

There is very little on the NFL slate that looks appealing other than what is already in place. To summarize, I have 2 teams left on a 4-team ML parlay still open as I hit on UGA and So. Car. leaving PHI & NE in a ML parlay with heavy leverage (nearly 3 to 1). I also have NE -4 for 5$. There is only one other play I like today as V.Young leads a TEN team that is just in the 2nd tier in the AFC behind the elite teams, but still legitimate and definitely better than any of the NFC teams. TB appeared to be doing something special this season defeating NO, STL then CAR(w/ Carr @ QB), but a review of those opponents now reveals they really haven't beaten anyone. Expect this to be another example of the AFC dominance, again put into a ML parlay w/ PHI. TEN/PHI ML Par [2.5$/5.85$].

2nd Half

UGA -3.5(2H) over Vandy [3$].

2nd Half CFB

I'm going to chase Neb who is getting slaughtered by Ok. St. Because, "I'M A MAN! I'M 33!"... Neb (-3.5, 2H) over Ok. St. [2$].

Rest of CFB & some NFL

Starting all of these as 2$ selections, but may upsize based on how earlier selections work out. Everyone is calling for an upset of BC by ND, but I just don't see it. BC(-13) 37 ND 13 [2$]... UGA gets an easy road match-up @ Vandy UGA(-7) 28 Vandy 3 [2$]... Elite SEC team goes to lowly ACC team. Looks like the oddsmakers bought into what they saw 1st half last week from NC, I don't So. Car. (-7)33 NC 9 [2$]... SEC as a whole is a bit more tightly packed than this line suggests. KY had a couple of extra days to lick their wounds and prepare, LSU has earned its #1 ranking, but has only played 1 road game & it was against a weak Miss. St. team. This will be different. LSU 28 KY(+10) 27 [2$]... I really don't get these big spreads ASU is laying to Pac-10 opponents, this is just not a top-15 team. Wash(+11) 26 ASU 24 [2$]. Using a couple of the above teams in an exotic with some NFL teams for a 4-team ML parlay, PHI is strong off the bye, you have the stories on the rest of the games in this post, UGA/SC/PHI/NE (2.5$ to win 7.18$)... NE is still showing @ -4 on one book I use, but others have already migrated upwards to -5.5 and will likely move to -6+ by kickoff. Belichick has something special for Romo, Dallas has not beaten anyone and the AFC is far superior to the NFC. Add in some bulletin board fodder from Wade Phillips(hasn't everyone learned not to battle the Pats in the press?) and we have the makings of a statement game blowout. NE(-4)33 DAL 14 [5$].

Early Saturday CFB

I'm going to work myself through the day today, starting with these early picks: RU(-17) over Cuse [3$], Neb(-3.5) over Ok. St. [2$], So. Fl.(-11) over CFU [2$].

Friday CFB

SJSU often rises to the occasion, Hawaii makes the long trip to the mainland on a short week. Expect Hawaii to be a little sluggish as they have been early most of this season and SJSU to play inspired out of the gate. SJSU +10(1H) over Hawaii [3$].

2nd Half CFB

Navy & Pitt are trading blows, Pitt is running the type of offense that is susceptible to errors especially with a Frosh QB. Navy gets the ball first & that may be decisive. Navy +3(2H) over Pitt [3$].

2nd Half

TEN -5(2H) over ATL [1$]

Upsize

JAX -1 over KC [4$ from 2$].

2nd Half

LSU (-4.5)(2H) over FL [3$]

Upsize

LSU(-7) over FL [4$]

2nd Half

Mia-FL -6 over NC [1$]

Weekend Selections

I know I promised a new strategy, but after deeper research, I chose not to go in that direction. The strategy involved using IF bets to lever up our wagers on plays I felt stronger about and to minimize losses on picks I didn't like as much, but I don't think we're there yet. I think I have a strong set of picks this weekend, and I'm just going to be conventional... CFB... Experience versus youth in what the media is touting as a heavyweight battle, but there is really only one heavyweight in the game, the other team WAS very good last year. Expect Tebow to blow a gasket in Death Valley and get knocked around a bit. LSU (-7)27 FL 10 [2$]... UGA are great road warriors and they are going up against a Tenn team that really is not that good. Tough SEC battle nonetheless, but the better team prevails UGA(-1) 24 TENN 16 [2$]... ASU really does not have the right to give more than a TD to anyone but Stan in the PAC 10, yet they are on the road, giving 8.5 against a WSU team that can score points WSU (+8.5) 33 ASU 30 [2$]... Red River Shootout has lost a lot of its luster, important thing to note is this is an intense rivalry. OK is probably a bit overrated, Tex was about right, but can definitely hang with anyone. OK 27 Tex(+12.5) 24 [1$]...MIA-FL has had a re-birth with the re-insertion of Kyle Wright into the line-up, NC has shown an ability to lose to anyone, anywhere MIA(-7) 27 NC 10 [1$]...MD is coming off a high where its backup QB led the way, yet the plan is to still go with the original starter. Even if he can't go, it's no matter, GT is a solid defensive unit and will stifle either QB GT(-3) 19 MD 9 [1$]... Duke has covered 4 straight since I put my neck out on them in the 1st game, but is still mostly Duke. A well coached WF team will not give easy opportunities and will take advantage of the long layoff. WF(-7) 27 Duke 13 [1$]... all of the top 10 teams were put on watch last week and that will work to the advantage of USF. USF will be easy to motivate knowing they were FL-Atl just a few years ago and don't ever want to be again. No let down here USF(-17) 41 FL-Atl 14 [1$]... NFL... JAX hasn't performed well off byes in the Del Rio era, but is by far the better team here and is motivated by lack of post-bye week success. KC comes off a high over SD and will not be as effective on offense against JAX. May upsize as this is my best bet of the weekend. JAX(-1) 24 KC 13 [2$]... NYG not that good, NYJ not that bad, NFC really bad, AFC very good. NYJ(+4) 23 NYG 20[2$]... Rules of engagement state you should always go against teams that have 4 straight covers because the lines are skewed somewhere in the 4-6 point neighborhood. This goes against what I said earlier in the week to always take NE, but I will believe the time tested trends over my own nonsense most times. WF was a pick like this above, 3 NFL picks apply here CHI(+4) 24 GB 17 [2$]... NE 31 CLE(+16) 21 [1$]... STL(+4) 9 AZ 7 (1$).

Thursday Night

I have done a lot of soul searching this week and I am going to roll out a strategy I have used before to get through some tough times, in the meantime, I do have a conventional straight wager for Thursday. This is one of my favorite match-ups of the season, I like both teams a lot. Earlier this season I rolled out the thought that I was going to try to become a So. Car. fan, going as far as requesting and receiving a Cocks jersey as a birthday present. I then promptly went out and bet against them, and I'm doing it again this week. Kentucky is poor on defense, but I just do not think a Chris Smelley led offense can exploit that defense to the extent I know Andre Woodson will exploit a JASper Brinkley-less USC defense. Kentucky just seems to care about the ball a bit more and is more dynamic at the same time. Woodson should be the Heisman front-runner right now and this nationally televised game should act as an introduction to some of the voters. I think the game will be very competitive, but Kentucky makes the plays and doesn't make the mistakes. Kent (+3.5) 33 So. Car. 27 [3$].

State of The Count

I have spoken to several gamblers, professional and otherwise, and to a person, none can recollect a 2 week period like the one we just left. Nothing seems to make sense other than parity has arrived in the NFL. Minus a couple of elite teams (NE & IND, DAL so far, but don't expect it to last), everyone else is very very close. The rules of engagement must change to survive as a bettor, and the rules are: if you can find a reason to take the points, take them, unless if it is against NE or IND. IND happens to have some clear, do not touch opponents(JAX, TEN & NE), but other than those games, take NE, IND and the points everywhere else. The nice thing about such a strategy going forward is that the oddsmakers have a bias towards trying to get you to take favorites at inflated prices, so this should work out well. Tonight, I have upsized NE to a 5$ wager because I feel this is a mismatch and having it lead off the week gives us plenty of time to un-do the size if I am wrong... Now, as for the Eagles, I will call last week versus DET the dead cat bounce for D-Mac. The lack of confidence and utter fear he is playing the QB position with, to the point his back foot hits the turf and he is immediately thinking of, and moving towards getting out of the pocket. Problem is, his legs can't get him out of there anymore and he is doomed to try to survive on his passing skills alone, which most would agree, are only slightly above average. I hope the Eagles can somehow win through this problem and truly want to see AJ Feeley under center asap, with the Kevin Kolb era starting this off-season. I definitely foresee D-Mac begging out of town before the season is out, going to either Minnesota or Chicago in the off-season, hopefully for a high draft pick. I have already traded him off of my fantasy team as of 30 minutes ago and will be going through my e-mail archive to find the company I used to change my TO jersey to a Reggie Brown jersey as I have 3 authentic D-Mac jerseys, 2 destined to say "Kolb 4", one becoming a "Westbrook 36". Please do not misconstrue this as typical Philly fan complaining, this is all said with a clear head, an acceptance of what I witnessed last night and a thorough understanding o how the City of Philly will treat D-Mac as the season goes on. I guess I will miss the old D-Mac, but the new, immobile, insecure, race-card-pulling one needs to go.

2nd Half

DAL -7(2H) over STL [2$]... HOU -3(2H) over ATL [1$].

Upsize & Addition

MIN (+3) over GB [2$](previously 1$]... MIA (-3) over OAK [2$].

Theft

If you had USC like I did, you were robbed from tonight. The timing and magnitude of penalties was disgusting. There were at least 5, 15-yard penalties that were phantom calls, the un-catchable pass interference followed by the pass interference when the Wash receiver was riding the USC corner's back, the unnecessary roughness calls on the in bounds hit on Locker, the in bounds hit on the Wash interception return and especially the roughness called on the screen pass that was dropped where the receiver kept batting the ball around on the ground, that is always a potential lateral, especially when the receiver continues to handle the ball. And those are the specifics remember, I am certain there were others. On a day where the favorites were all struggling, it seemed this official crew wanted to be a part of history. It didn't factor into the result, but even the play where an interception was ruled on the field in the end zone for Wash when at first glance on TV the ball was obviously dropped, even the Wash players reaction gave away the fact that he dropped the ball. I don't like to complain about the officials, but the crowd never gets in the game without the gift calls and USC wins by 4 TDs as expected instead of sneaking past by a FG. I got some back with Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik, but I should be sizing my book up for a knockout punch right now instead of licking my wounds. Going to take a look at NFL games some more and probably up-size a little to try to get some of the good work done earlier back.

2nd Half Pick

4 PFs, 2 INTs(1 a tip for a TD), averaging 10 yards per carry, USC should roll 2nd half... USC -11(2H) over Wash [2$].

2nd Half Pick

Florida in the swamp, some costly penalties and a bad call on a TD created the 14-0 1st half. Great play to try to cancel out the game wager... UF -8(2H) over Aub [2$].

2nd Half

Texas -7(2H) over KSU [1$]... RU -9.5(2H) over MD [1$] big middle... Cal/Ore over 31(2H) [1$].

More Picks

MD (+20) over RU [1$]... DEN (+10) over IND [1$].

No theme, no humor, just picks...

Been taking a beating lately, in no mood for humor. Upsizing some picks for the expected wave to come...USF +7 WVU [2$]... ND +23 Pur [2$]... Cal +6 Ore [2$]... PSU -3 ILL [1$]... UF -17 AUB [2$]... USC -20.5 Wash[2$]... Cuse -1.5 Mia-OH [1$] NFL... PHI -2.5 NYG [2$]... MIN +3 GB [1$]... HOU -3 ATL [1$]... PIT -5.5 AZ [1$]... NE -7 CIN [1$]... Potential upsizes and 2nd half picks to come.

Thursday Night Picks

So. Miss. @ Boise St. presents a very interesting mid-major match-up between the "king" of mid-majors and a very strong program that often has the talent to hang with the big conference teams. Both teams have great running games with inexperienced QBs on offense and great front 7 defenders able to stop the run. Boise St. is a household name and I believe the oddsmakers are forcing you to play a hefty premium to wager in their direction, I believe even with a daunting homefield advantage, this one should not even be a TD line, I might go as far as saying a 4.5-5 point line is more suitable than the +11 you get with So. Miss. Furthermore, this is not your father's Boise St., scoring 30+ is not likely against a strong opponent, thus the 51 point over is high as well. I have 2 plays, Boise 23 So.Miss. (+11) 19, under 51, [1$][1$]. I will be posting my other selections for this week tomorrow.

Monday Night

TEN +4.5 over NO [1$]

Late Game

NYG(+4) over WAS [1$]

Back to the well...

I promise, this is the last time you will see me pick PHI if they blow this pick. PHI ML/SD ML/ NO ML [1$ to win 1.8$]

2nd Half Average Down

Liked UCLA @ -7, going to average down with -3, 2H. UCLA (-3,2H) over Wash [1$].

2nd Half Pick

Can't say I'm a big fan of the 2007 version of Wisc, but @ home vs. a so-so Iowa team is good 2H value Wisc(-4, 2H) over Iowa.

Upsizes

Upsizing at a new number PSU (PK) Mich [1$], UGA (+4) BAMA [1$].

More CFB

L'ville -21 (1H) 'Cuse [1$]... AF +12.5 BYU [1$]

1 CFB game, 1 NFL game

Everyone loves LSU, and the numbers suggest you should. Going into this week's game with So. Car., there are several points that make me want to buck the trend. I don't consider LSU battle tested yet as the team that was supposed to do this, VT, really is not that good. Last week, against an inferior opponent, HC Les Miles decided to start Ryan Perrilloux and REST senior "team leader" and starter Matt Flynn. Perrilloux responded with huge output as expected, but also enlightened a disturbing trend, while better at executing the offense, Flynn stifles the big play for LSU with his efficiency, the big plays to date have all come with Perrilloux under center. I don't know that a QB controversy is brewing, but this fact may come front and center this Saturday as So. Car. has been very successful at stopping the pass this season. If this one is competitive in the 2nd quarter, Miles may find himself in a bind when he goes to Perrilloux to ignite the offense. In general, I do not think much of Miles as a tactician, while his counterpart The Ol' Ball Coach is just that, a tactician. So. Car., despite his off field transgressions, is behind its leader Blake Mitchell who has a Jim McMahon, just get it done and inspire the team quality that works for this team. So. Car. is starting to look a lot like last year's Florida team that was able to manage its emotions in a tough SEC and peak when it needed to for big games. So. Car. also has a distinct advantage in the kicking game that seems more likely to be a factor than an 18-point spread. If you followed me on USF 2-weeks ago and UK last week when I called for outright wins, follow me here. Even if I'm only partly right, you have a big cushion with the spread. So. Car. (+18) 23 LSU 20 [1$]... Back to the theme of the week with an additional NFL pick, yes NE is very good, but NE is especially good at rising to the most important occassions (i.e. vs. SD after CameraGate), but usually plays it close to the vest with softer match-ups, trying to win without having to put anything on tape for the rest of the league. I expect that type of game in this division match-up. NE 27 BUF (+17) 17 [1$].

CFB

GT line came up. GT (-3.5) 30 UVA 10 [1$]

The "Let's Not Start Sucking Each Other's D***s Quite Yet" Picks

We are at an inflection point in the season, both College and Pro where we don't really have enough information to start relying just on this year's info, but we do have enough to say certain teams are not as good or as bad as they look. The oddsmakers are trying to make us believe, based on limited information, we have enough to go on and are putting up lines accordingly. Trends may be lying, there is a lot of feel to this week. In a tribute to The Wolf, these picks all include either a team off to a great start that probably isn't what it seems, or a good team that might have looked bad early on: NCAA- TA&M, not that good Miami(-3) 23 TA&M 16 [1$]... L'ville D is bad, but anyone can stop 'Cuse L'ville(-36.5) 51 'Cuse 6 [1$]... Mich beat ND... Congratulations, but that's really not impressive. Expect the home crowd to turn at the 1st sign of trouble PSU(-3) 34 Mich 20 [1$]... UGA not that bad & BAMA DEFINITELY not that good... UGA (+4) 31 BAMA 16 [1$]... UCLA not nearly that bad, J.Locker not that good yet... UCLA(-7) 30 Wash 13 [1$]...NFL- GB not that good, SD not as bad as @NE. AFC vs. NFC classic... SD(-3) 38 GB 13 [1$]... TB not that good, STL not that bad STL(+4) 27 TB 17 [1$]... DAL not that good...CHI(-3) 28 DAL 16 [1$]... CLE & D.Anderson not that good, OAK D, not Cincy...OAK(-3) 20 CLE 10 [1$]... 49ers look ugly, but winning ugly(or covering in this case) is an art and should be respected... PIT 28 SF(+10)27 [1$]. I really want to get GT involved, but can't find a line yet. Probably more to come later in the week.

2nd Half

Eagles to win. PHI-4.5(2H, -120) [1$]

Monday Night

I believe we are looking at an O/U number that is based on the offensive ineptitude shown by these two teams in Week 1. In fact, you may look at this game and have difficulty seeing this go over. That is a big reason why I believe it will. PHI has been prolific on offense in TV games and I expect last week to simply be an exercise in chipping off rust for D.McNabb. On the other side of the ball, I am not sold on how PHI stopping a strong running game of WAS. As a homer, I want to say PHI gets close to the over itself in a rout, but as a realist, this looks like a hard fought game where J.Campbell makes a few plays to keep WAS in it, but falls to a more battle tested, hungrier PHI team. PHI 27 WAS 23 (over 38)[1$]

2nd Half

CIN -7(2H) [1$]

2nd Half

Jagwires -7(2H,+105).

2nd Half

I'm smelling a rout. No one adjusts as well as USC. USC -5(2H) over Neb [1$].

Uncle Buck Specials

My Uncle Buck always bets against teams instead of on teams, I'm too tired to give any more of an explaination. WF(-19.5) 34 Army 3 [1$], ILL(-11.5) 28 Syr 0 [1$].

NFL Picks

Let me start by introducing an new type of wager I have been using with great success over the past few seasons, the money line(ML) parlay. Parlays, unto themselves are a bad bet, but I have found using the ML in a parlay to wager on teams you were very confident would win, but were not comfortable with the point spread allows you to get on the closest thing to a "sure thing" on one, or multiple parts of a wager, in essence getting leverage on another part of your wager. I will use this week's wager as an example. IND ML/NO ML/ PHI ML(1.2$ to win 2.03$). In their own right, IND & PHI are -300, NO is -195, all pretty heavy odds to lay to wager on each individual team, all requiring a lot of money at risk to make any kind of profit. If you were to wager 1$ on each team, and lose one game, you are not profiting that week, if you lose 2 or 3 games, you have wiped out any success you may have had elsewhere and are looking at a negative week. However putting these teams into a parlay dramatically reduces your downside(much more important than increasing upside), and a funny thing happens in probability with 3 out of 4 shots, they come out with much greater frequency than 3 out of 4. In this case, IND won 7 straight against TEN before TEN shocked them last season, is it likely TEN will win 2 straight? Probably not. Throw out 2005(pretty easy for PHI fans) and PHI won 6 straight vs. WASH, is coming home on Monday night, and is coming off a loss, a pretty good spot to expect a PHI win. That leaves us with NO with extra rest, coming off an embarrassing loss, going to TB face an already banged up TB team that probably isn't very good anyway. But now, we're not laying 2 to 1, we're getting about 1.7 to 1. Not guaranteed, but we are protecting our downside and giving ourselves a great chance to hit all 3 picks. Furthermore, if the 1st 2 picks hit, we have artificially created a 7 point middle for the PHI game where we can take all risk off the table(or some) and relax, and not worry if our beloved Iggles win by a TD or more... NYJ & BAL both likely to have new QBs under center, arguably, NYJ opens up its vertical passing game with its move to the #2 QB, while no positives can ever be drawn from a move to K.Boller at QB. This is just too many points for defensive minded teams BAL 23 NYJ(+11) 20 [1$]... JAX is a defense first team that runs the ball very well and well at home. ATL is just plain awful and should be testing the outer bounds of odds makers imaginations with 2 TD+ spreads versus IND & @NO later this season. JAX(-10) 27 ATL 6 [1$]... This is difficult to explain with past performance, but be patient, HOU is better than CAR. Going on the road to win is going to be a difficult new experience for HOU to conquer, but this is a confident, playoff contending AFC team facing an NFC team that may back into the playoffs because no one steps up to claim the spots. D.Robinson won't stop S.Smith, but will contain him and HC G.Kubiak will manage this to a FG game. CAR 24 HOU(+7) 23 [1$]... MIN has won 10 straight against DET, DET was impressive on offense vs. OAK, but also tends to be its own worst enemy and MIN has the defense to stop the M.Martz show causing a combined 10 TOs last season allowing a combined 13 yds. rushing(no, a digit is not missing). Expect the same here MIN(+3) 20 DET 16 [1$]...I think you knew this next pick was coming after my rant earlier this week, but NE has to lose some swagger after being exposed for cheating, the injured players on D will be too much to overcome against the SD offense, and the game just means more to SD after the post-game taunting on its field by NE players. SD(+4) 31 NE 20 [1$].

WVU 2nd Half

My books begged me not to do it, but I took WVU (-7, -150, 2H) over MD[1$]

Line Adjustment; 2nd Half Possibles

Looks like our frien Dr. Bob must have been reading my blog and put out Kentucky as a best bet, because the line has moved from the 6.5-7 range down to the 4-5 range. He's the only person who could move the lines that much without any game news, and while I do not subscribe, I see he has listed the game in his best bet package. Lesson learned, I had to get Kentucky in @ +5... For tonight, let's keep our eyes open for WVU & TCU for 2nd half action.

College Football Picks

How do you wake a sleeping giant? Try taking away some of their #1 votes when they are idle. Heading into the season, this is one of the games I circled on my calendar as a great game that could result in a huge upset. Sorry to say, it's just not going to happen. Sam Keller has looked serviceable, but that's not going to get it done. The running game has been solid, but USCs D is coming off of 2 straight weeks of being tortured by Pete Carroll and his staff on the Idaho performance, they will be amped. Talent will prevail, especially since it is coupled with extra preparation and something to prove. USC(-9.5) 41 Neb 20 [1$]... Florida has gotten off to a blazing start in the defense of its national title, but it has come at the hands of WKy & Troy. Tennessee on the other hand comes in a little more battle tested having beaten So. Miss and lost to Cal. Specifically, this s the first game of any significance quarterbacked by Tim Tebow and played by many of the defensive starters of UF, and I believe it will show. While UF was the best team in college football last season, it struggled in several conference games because the SEC is tougher than any bowl game. UT in a minor upset Tenn(+8.5) 26 FL 23 [1$]... When you hook up with the ugly girl, it's best to just do what you have to do, and never talk about again Mich(-7.5) 27 ND 10 [1$] In honor of Peyton Manning and the Colts of 2006-7 and the Boston Red Sox of 2004, I give you Andre Woodson 2007. Where is the parallel you ask? Woodson has been losing to Brian Brohm at football(not basketball though) since he was a freshman in high school. Redemption has come in the form of a porous L'ville D, a home crowd that finally has a reason to go to football games and an inspired, focused Woodson that makes the day his. I see some books starting to move this one to +7, but my guys still have +6.5. I'm going to wait to try to get done @ +7 since I don't think a move to +6 is likely, but I won't need it. UK (+6.5-7)44 L'ville 42 [1$]

Appropriate Pats Punishment; Sports Guy Misses the Point

For all Sports Guy readers out there, I direct you to his column with Aaron Schatz on the Pats Cheating with caution, it is another homer response. Both Belechick-ites fail miserably to draw parallels between this event and other forms of cheating that have occurred in the NFL. Cheating by players is not the same as cheating by a coach. Cheating by front office men, even if the coach is amongst them, is not the same as a coach showing up Sunday afternoon with a plan in place to cheat during the competition. Parallels would be miking the visitors locker room or tapping into their communication devices. Would SG even attempt to defend, or explain those types of actions? I hope not. Plain and simple, this is having a buddy stand behind a poker opponent and advise you on his cards. Where I'm from, if you got caught doing that, you would end up like Worm and Mikey McD in Rounders and you would not be welcome at the game again. Of course, this is big business, and that is not an option, nor is forfeiting last week's game(even if it would improve The Count's record). Being a very fair person, I believe I have the solution. For the Jets game this season at a minimum, up to every game this season, but most likely just the Jets, or perhaps one game for each of the other AFC East opponents, the Pats should lose all communication privileges. No helmets with green dots, no headsets to coaches upstairs, NO HAND SIGNALS to players on the field. This is where the violation occurred, this is where they should be punished, not at the 2008 Draft. Put them back to the Stone Age of football when plays were shuttled in from the sidelines by players so they appreciate the existence of this technology in the game and why it is wrong to steal this from your opponent. If they manage to win this/these game(s), they will have proven that the fuss is about nothing, if they don't, their punishment comes in the form of losses, which they deserve in their quest for "the first-ever 16-0 season in NFL history."-SG Most likely, they will be made to look like the fools they are... Really Bill, the first 16-0 season? Nah, you're not a homer, and Belichick is not a genius, he's a scumbag.

Monday Night Late Game

Best trend of the season: The Cardinals organization has an 87 season streak of almost all bad football. Talent is improved a little this year, but with a new coach and new system to grow accustomed to, it will be a process, not an event. On the other side, the 49ers are a once proud franchise that had to go back to the drawing board recently. On offense, there are several playmakers, on defense, some solid veterans have been added. This line speaks to a perception that the Cards are the team on the rise, but the 49ers are the real riser and should be a 3-5 point neutral field favorite, not a PICK. 49ers(-3) 27 AZ 16 [1$].

Monday Night

Apologies for the late post, I will be brief. C.Palmer nearly 2 seasons removed from his surgery figures to put up numbers this season, while the Ravens are a bit more dynamic with McGahee @ RB, plus M.Clayton is expected to be a 3rd year breakout WR. CIN/BAL over 40 [1$]

2nd Half Pick

Hawaii is on our list. In a tough game, but can score in their sleep. Can't go undefeated as some predict if you lose youe 2nd game. Hawaii -14(2H) [1$]

2nd Half Pick

PSU trned the ball over 3 times, including for a TD & still leads by a TD. ND has nothing on offense. Act fast, it may move, this one is fixin' to get ugly. PSU -7(2H) [1$]

2nd Half Pick

My favorite pick of the day was UGA, 2nd half line is -3 saying they can lose and we still win this bet. This is good value, especially at home. UGA -3(2H) [1$]

2nd Half Pick

The only way FSU/UAB goes over 28 is if Charlie Ward sneaks into Drew Weatherford's uniform... might be more convincing if he chose Xavier Lee's uni. FSU/UAB (under 28, 2H) [1$]

Size Adjustments

Modified $ system for ease of use. Games affected: UGA from 2$ to 1.5$, PHI from 3$ to 2$, PIT from 3$ to 2$ & SD from 2$ to 1.5$. Also modified total return by +0.10$ from past wagers.

2nd Half Pick

OSU -13.5[0.5$] I just don't like Akron's bullpen. Akron last beat OSU in 1894 w/ John Heisman as coach.

2nd Half Pick

WVU -14 [0.5$] Should take it straight at Marshall this half.

Fredo Mannings (team logo in the right column)

My keeper fantasy team w/ my middle school on up friends, the Fredo Mannings:McNabb, Westbrook, Barber, Gates, Ward, Reg. Brown, Nedney & Eagles D (-8.5) vs. 50 KENT... Brady, A.Peterson, D.Foster, Roy Williams, Cotchery, Branch, Mare & Ravens.

Final NFL Picks

I can't back this one up with any evidence because none really exists. I really like this team as a playoff contender. I got done on Sunday @ -2.5, but since I didn't release it until now, I will put the updated -3. HOU(-3) 27 KC 13 [1$]... I am really down on CAR this year. They are living off of a reputation established 3 years ago, but the truth is the D is aging & Delhomme is not very good. Thee Rams are a playoff team and dominate on their turf. Another Sunday line that was better, I got a PK, but show it @ -1. STL (-1) 24 CAR 10... You lose the anchor in the middle of your D line, the QB of your D @ safety and your best corner just got to camp a week ago. Your RB who has never handled a full NFL load(or full college load for that matter) is coming off of shoulder surgery, your QB has to rest his arm for fatigue, your top free agent acquisition hasn't worked with your QB and hasn't produced in years. You have thrived for years on the underdog inferiority complex, but now your team is full of high priced stars including 2 prima donna WRs, you are playing a coach that observed and learned everything under your HC, you expelled this team from the playoffs last season and you are going to their stadium full of miserable fans. Did I mention you are laying 6.5 points? I don't care if you are the NE Patriots, at best you win a close one. At worst... NYJ(+6.5) 23 NE 21 [1$]... Just a pick against the worst team in the NFL. MIN(-3) 17 ATL 9 [0.5$]

Final CFB Pick

In this space I declared Georgia an SEC title contender, I want to adjust that statement. This off-season I proclaimed to a few friends that I am now a South Carolina fan, enjoying the Ol' Ball Coach's approach to the college game and wanting to express my gratitude as an Eagles' fan for the tailspin he put the Redskins. Today I am here to tell you I was premature in each of these declarations. Georgia is a national title contender(please look at their schedule & tell me where the problems are? @Tenn, neutral vs FL, pretty easy by SEC standards) and I must not be that big a fan of the 'Cocks because the first tough spot I find them in, I am going against them. Issues I have with the other USC: -Mitchell will be chipping off rust while everyone else is at a faster game speed. Do you think Spurrier might take issue with this? -No playmakers on the outside. -On the road. -311(yes I confirmed with 2 sources) 311 yards rushing allowed to ULL last week. That just doesn't seem like the type of thing you correct in 1 week when taking a huge step up in class. -Stafford is well on his way and thrives when confident(I'm projecting a Brady Quinn career path for this kid. Probably means a Heisman &/or a national title). Just like last week, I am not hesitating at the fact that it appears sharp money is against UGA... they'll learn. This line came up as -3.5, but since I was able to buy it down to -3 for the low price of -120, I bought it to -3. Don't expect to need it, but it was the right play. UGA(-3,-120) 35 So. Car. 23[2$]...the early list of potential 2nd half candidates looks like this: UGA, WVU, FL, Oh. St. & Hawaii.

2nd Half Colts/Saints Over 24 (-125)

If you liked it @ 52, you have to jump on the total of 44. I never said they would break the points up evenly. Just to cancel the original game bet, not trying to win unless they explode to get over original 52 total. Colts/Saints 2H over 24(-125) [1$]

Rutgers over Navy

The line opened @ -12.5 and quickly raced to -17, even showing @ -19 @ one major book. I usually don't like to chase a number up, especially not this much, but this line maker appears to have made a mistake. Navy leads the nation in rushing year after year, but against a relatively soft schedule. I'm not drinking the NJ Kool-Aid, quite the contrary, I'm pretty negative on Rutgers relative to most, but this is a good team. The offense is balanced enough, but if need be, they can just ride Ray Rice all day against Navy and win big (Navy returns only 3 defensive starters and just gave up 19 points to lowly Temple). Rutgers is very strong on D as well, and while Navy usually confuses opponents, Rutgers held them to just over 2 ypc last season(Navy starting QB did get injured in 1st half). I expect Rutgers to take an early lead at home, then it's all over since Navy can't pass it's way back into the game. RU (-16) 38 Navy 10 [1$]

By Request...

from my one loyal reader "Stuck in India", I will put something out on the opener. People see 52 as an O/U line and immediately think it's too high. Not in this case where both offenses figure to dominate the other defense. IND 41 NO 28 over 52 [1$]

Tease Me!

You ever curse out the odds makers, or just sit in awe when a game comes out right on top of the line, give or take a point? Here is your chance to embrace the odds maker, tip your hat to his prowess, and win money anyway. In my review of last week's games, 2 of the upcoming games I mentioned were Neb/WF and Oreg/Mich. I said Nebraska would struggle in a look ahead game and Michigan would bounce back to win vs. Oregon. When I said this, I was expecting Neb -10+ & Mich -3 or -4 to be the lines. Well the odds-makers nailed these 2 lines, so if you can't beat them, join them. These are each a one-game, two-team teaser(as discussed in the Tip Corner). Neither game is dependent on the outcome of the other. Mich 33 Oreg 27(Mich-1.5/Oreg. +13.5) [1$], Neb 27 WF 20(Neb -1.5/WF +13.5) [1$]. Both of these came up even money bets w/ my book and will be logged as such.

So. Fl. +7 over Auburn

This is simply the bookmakers playing the name game with you. Remove the names and analyze this game and you might call it a PK, only because Auburn is at home. Auburn's offense is anemic, Cox is not that good(I feel for him with his illness, but I have to call it like it is and I LOVE Lefty QBs). On the other side Grothe is everything you want out of a QB that only has the talent to top out at this level, and his team believes in him. This team really is amongst the elite in the Big East, and could make a Rutgers like run this season. So. Fl. carries a few short trends in its favor(I prefer short trends in CFB) while Auburn has shown an inability to cover at home, vs. quality opponents, as a favorite, on grass, while wearing shoelaces... in every spot imaginable. Add in a sub-par opener for So. Fl. to juice this line up, and the sharps on the dog's side for more ammo. These are ships passing in the night, next week So. Fl. will be ranked, Auburn will be out, or holding on for dear life. So. Fl.(+7) 23 Aub. 14 [1$]